Gold prices recorded a record high in 2020 amid the spread of the Corona virus pandemic, but they fell at the beginning of 2021, which increased the demand for this metal.
In a report published by the Russian newspaper “Vzgliad”, writer Olga Samovalova says that with the world’s central banks increasing their gold reserves to a record level, the demand for gold has increased, whether in the form of bars, coins or jewelry.
After the record rise in prices in 2020, when an ounce of gold exceeded two thousand dollars, prices fell again to settle in the range of 1,700 dollars during 2021.
A group of factors contributed to the decline in gold prices, including the rise in the dollar exchange rate, and the increase in interest rates, but the continued purchase of this metal at high rates prevented an increase in its decline.
The demand for gold increased in 2020, thanks to the European Union and the United States following the policy of creating money to help national economies. Thus the profits of people who chose to invest in this metal.
But prices quickly fell to 1,750 and 1,850 dollars per ounce, and according to the mint’s experts, the arrival of vaccines against the Corona virus, the recovery of the global economy after the crisis and generous economic incentives are all factors that increased the attractiveness of traditional assets, and investors took advantage of this opportunity.
gold reserves
According to data issued by the World Gold Council, central banks’ reserves of gold amounted to 36 thousand tons, and the Reserve Bank of India was the largest buyer of gold in the third quarter of 2021, after the country raised the volume of gold reserves from 41 tons to 745 tons, and Brazil increased 9 Tons of gold added to its gold reserves, and Uzbekistan wove along its lines, with an increase of 26 tons, while Russia only increased 6 tons to its gold reserves. Gold storage this year was not exclusive to developing countries.
According to the mint’s experts, Ireland “sufficed in September and October buying one ton of gold, and in September it increased its gold reserves by half a ton in a purchase, the first of its kind since 2008, and the central bank bought The Singaporean had 26 tons of gold between May and June, the first increase in the country’s reserves since 2000.
According to the analytical data of the mint experts, the volume of global demand for bullion and coins in the third quarter of the year reached 262 tons, and by the end of the third quarter of the year 857 tons of physical investment gold had been sold, a figure not recorded since 2013.
The writer pointed out that the demand for jewelry increased in India and China, as they are among the main consuming countries, noting that jewelry represents between 40% and 50% of the global demand for the yellow metal.
Mint experts indicated that the total indicator of demand for jewelry in India may exceed 400 tons at the end of 2021, while it may exceed 500 tons in China, and accordingly, the global demand indicator for jewelry by the end of this year may return to the pre-epidemic level.
In Europe, Germans are usually the most buyers of coins and bullion, and the demand for gold in Germany has grown by 35% compared to the second half of 2020, due to inflation reaching a record level after the lifting of restrictions imposed by the Corona pandemic.
demand growth
Negative real nominal rates have enhanced the attractiveness of gold, and thanks to the high demand for physical gold, prices have remained stable. Restrictions imposed to limit the spread of Corona.
The mint experts explained that gold, in light of stagflation, attracts the interest of institutional investors, especially that curbing economic stimulus and high inflation negatively affects the value of traditional financial assets, and the expected tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank is unlikely to affect gold prices in 2022.
There are optimistic expectations about the possibility of a return to gold prices to rise again to a record level that may reach 2,630 and 2,650 dollars per ounce in the next few years. On the other hand, some pessimistic forecasts indicate the possibility of an ounce of gold falling to $1600.