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(Trends Wide) — The 2022 election is shaping up, so far, better than Democrats had imagined. They are now favorites to retain the Senate, and they seem likely to keep their House losses below the historical midterm average for the party that controls the White House.
They also seem to be doing pretty well in the gubernatorial race. In the six states where President Joe Biden won by less than 5 points in 2020 and also have gubernatorial elections this year, Democrats have a clear lead (Michigan and Pennsylvania) or are in forecast contests reserved (Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin) in five of them.
The exception is Georgia, where Democratic heroine Stacey Abrams is running for second governor.
Abrams fights in Georgia gubernatorial race
Last month, three different Peach State surveys were released that meet Trends Wide’s standard for publication. All three put Republican Governor Brian Kemp ahead of Abrams in this 2018 rematch.
These polls coincide with the average of the latest polls, which give Kemp a lead of about 5 points with about 50% of the vote. This last fact is important because to win in November, the majority of the votes are needed to avoid a second round in December.
Kemp is in a considerably better position than he was at this point four years ago. Back then, the two candidates were basically tied at the end of September. Kemp won by just 1.4 points, narrowly avoiding the second round.
Part of Kemp’s advantage is that he is in office this year. Of the six states that narrowly supported Biden in 2020 and are holding gubernatorial elections this year, Georgia is the only one with a GOP incumbent on the gubernatorial ballot. The incumbents don’t get as much of a boost at the polls as they used to, but they still get some push.
In fact, Kemp is a well-liked governor. Last week’s polls put net approval of him (approval minus disapproval) or favorability of him (favorable minus disfavor) in positive territory. Not an easy feat in a swing state like Georgia.
Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams speaks during a campaign rally in Atlanta on Sept. 9, 2022. (Photo: Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images)
But it’s not all about Kemp. Abrams had a negative net favorability rating in the Marist poll and was balanced in the Monmouth poll.
The problem for Abrams is not that he lacks a devoted following. The same number of voters in the Monmouth poll said they would definitely vote for Abrams (33%) as Kemp (34%). A higher percentage of Abrams supporters said he was very enthusiastic about her candidate (74%) than Kemp supporters (58%) in the CBS News poll.
Abrams’ problem is that the candidate, known for her efforts to increase voter turnout, appears to be lagging behind among undecided voters. Kemp leads by 10 points among independents in the average of recent polls.
Perhaps by going against then-President Donald Trump and certifying the state’s 2020 presidential vote, Kemp managed to attract a portion of 2020 Biden voters: 11% of them, according to the Marist poll. Abrams is winning 5% of Trump voters, the poll found. In a state where the presidential election was determined by 0.24 points in 2020, this makes a difference.
And while Kemp does better among voters most likely to turn out, he also leads among all registered voters. In other words, his advantage over Abrams isn’t due to participation alone.
For Abrams to win, he will probably need one of two things to happen. Either he will have to convince voters that Kemp is too extreme for Georgia, or he needs the polls to be inaccurate.
Unfortunately for Abrams, polling in Georgia has been more accurate than the average for swing states in recent election cycles.
