During the past weeks, Yemen has received unprecedented global media attention. As a result of the Houthi military attacks against commercial targets in the Red Sea, they almost caused heavy losses to the Israeli occupation, as a result of which a number of international shipping companies changed the route of their commercial flights to pass through South Africa. Which increases the cost of sea freight, and prolongs the arrival period of goods and commercial goods to their ports and final stations.
The escalation of these Houthi attacks has raised real concerns about global trade in light of global conflicts raging in Ukraine and Gaza, and other political tensions.
These painful blows to the Israeli commercial movement in the Red Sea also came at a time when most Arab and Islamic regimes failed the Palestinians in Gaza, unable to provide the slightest types of military support. Which helps stop this war
These Houthi attacks led to a significant and noticeable increase in the popularity of the Ansar Allah group outside Yemen, where the Palestinian issue remains a matter of consensus among the Arab street and its popular institutions, despite widespread Yemeni popular dissatisfaction against the wrong governance practices of the Houthis in Yemen and the deprivation of… Yemeni state employees, pensioners, and their families, including widows and orphans, received their monthly salaries for several years, as well as their bitter siege of the city of Taiz since the beginning of the Yemeni war in March 2015.
Whether these Houthi attacks were the result of direct Iranian instruction and direction, or were purely due to Houthi will, they will undoubtedly achieve many political gains for the Houthis if they employ them well.
The Houthis’ awareness of American policy in the region
In their military naval attacks, the Houthis took advantage of the declining role of the United States in the Middle East, and its desire to control the ongoing war in Gaza and prevent its expansion in the region. Which will negatively affect regional and global stability.
The United States has worked to strengthen its naval military presence to reassure Israel on the one hand, and to send a special message to Iran and its allies in the region against the consequences of participating in the war militarily on behalf of the Hamas movement on the other hand.
The Houthi military response of hijacking some commercial ships related to Israel – such as the cargo ship “Galaxy Leader” – was the only strong military response from Iran’s allies in the region, which confused the policy of the US President Biden administration in the region. The Middle East, especially with regard to the conflict and humanitarian crisis in Yemen.
Red Sea security
The United States formed a naval military alliance called the “Prosperity Guardian”; To protect navigation in the Red Sea region; In response to Israeli pressure that threatened direct intervention in the Red Sea region, and to strike the Houthis if the Houthi group continued to be exposed to Israeli commercial ships.
It is noteworthy that all the countries bordering the Red Sea are absent from this military alliance, which indicates the desire of the countries bordering it to calm the security situation in the region and avoid sliding into a military confrontation, which may lead to an expansion of the circle of conflict. The absence of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from this coalition was a clear indication of the Kingdom’s desire to end the war in Yemen irreversibly.
Credit goes to the late Yemeni President, Lieutenant Colonel Ibrahim Al-Hamdi, for realizing the strategic importance of the Red Sea, and the need for the countries bordering it to make every effort to work to secure it and secure their strategic interests in it.
Before his assassination in October 1977, President Al-Hamdi held a four-way summit, hosted by the Yemeni city of Taiz, with the President of the Republic of Sudan, Field Marshal Jaafar Muhammad Al-Numeiri, the President of Somalia, Siad Barre, and the President of the southern part of Yemen, President Salem Rabi’ Ali. To discuss securing the Red Sea through the Arab countries overlooking it, and to work to remove anti-Arab Israeli influence in this strategic waterway.
However, the tragic assassination of President Al-Hamdi led to the assassination of the Yemeni dream of forming an alliance of countries overlooking the Red Sea. To secure this important waterway in international trade.
Will America and its allies attack Yemen?
Despite the acceleration of events in the Red Sea region, the possibility of an American attack – through the “Guardian of Prosperity” coalition towards Yemeni military targets – remains a remote possibility. Due to the following reasons:
First: The Houthis, Iranians, and Americans do not want a military confrontation against each other, as Iran has benefited greatly from American military intervention in the Middle East region – especially in its war against Iraq – to strengthen its influence in the Arab region, starting with Iraq, and then Syria and Yemen after the Arab Spring.
Second: President Biden’s own political interest requires reducing the pace of the war in Gaza and avoiding escalation of the conflict outside Palestine. As a result of intense international pressure and popular pressure, especially among young voters in the US Democratic Party, which threatens the chances of the US President being re-elected in 2024.
Third: The United States will not be able to invade a country that is very similar to Afghanistan in its geographical terrain, social structure, and political history, as Yemen – especially the northern part controlled by the Houthi group – has always remained rebellious against the Western colonial powers, preserving its identity. Islamic cultural.
finally; The Houthis will lose a lot from the direct military confrontation against the United States of America, at a time when they have benefited greatly from the current situation, as they can obtain more concessions from the legitimate government led by Al-Alimi, which cannot publicly denounce the Houthi attacks against Israeli commercial interests in the sea. Al-Ahmar also cannot, at the same time, congratulate the Houthis for their military audacity and their support of their brothers in Gaza.
But US President Biden will find no other option than directing air strikes against Houthi military sites in Yemen in the event that his soldiers and naval battleships in the Red Sea are exposed to a direct military attack, something that both Iran and the Houthi group are well aware of, and are striving to avoid.
However, a military error – in the midst of this war in the Red Sea – remains a possibility, which could ignite the fuse of the crisis again in Yemen, something that no party currently wants to ignite.
