Will European countries defend Israel if Iran attacks? | Politics

Paris- I refused Tehran Calls from Western countries for it to abandon its threats of armed response to Israel, which it accuses of assassinating the head of the political bureau of the Islamic Resistance Movement (agitation) Ismail Haniyeh On its lands on Wednesday, July 31st.

This comes after the publication of The White HouseLast Monday, the US President issued a statement calling for Joe Biden and his French, Italian, German and British counterparts. Iran to “abandon its threats to launch a military attack against Israel in order to avoid influencing the discussions that have resumed in QatarLast Thursday, with the aim of reaching a truce in Gaza Strip“.

While Tehran seeks to maintain its position, military experts believe that it is standing between two fires: on the one hand, it does not want to be seen as the country that is destabilizing the truce negotiations, and on the other hand, it does not want to lose its credibility and international standing.

Expected participation

Regarding the possibility of European countries participating in protecting Israel in the event of an attack, former French army general François Chauviné does not rule out repeating the same scenario of the first Iranian attack on April 13 and 14.

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Chauvin explained the positioning of Western forces in Red Sea He said that the French fleet is part of the “Aspedes” mission and has an anti-missile capability, in addition to the operation that the Americans and British share with different working arrangements, and the American presence in Cyprus Geographically close.

Operation Aspides, a military operation overseen by the US and European fleets, is the naval force working to protect trade routes from attack. Houthis In the Red Sea, as well as a defensive protection mission that can intercept missiles passing through the area.

For his part, the former NATO planner does not believe thatNATO) And former British military intelligence officer Philip Ingram said that European countries would be the only ones prepared to help defend Israel against any direct attack from Iran and its allies, but there are some countries in The Middle East also.

Regarding whether these forces are able to guarantee Israel’s security, Ingram told Al Jazeera Net that it is very difficult to guarantee security when it comes to missiles, as it is not possible to be certain that they will be destroyed 100 percent, including… Israeli Iron DomeThere is always the possibility that some missiles will penetrate and hit military or civilian targets, and this is where the danger lies, in his opinion, when missiles are launched everywhere.

Regarding the location and deployment of Western ships, the security expert believes that the weapons systems they carry on board provide maximum coverage to support the destruction of any Iranian missiles, as well as missiles coming from Yemen Or from Hezbollah in LebanonHe pointed out that “if Iran attacks, Western intelligence networks will quickly pick up on the operation, giving them enough time to respond.”

Terms of intervention and response

It is noteworthy that the international coalition consisting of 12 countries in the Middle East includes European and other Middle Eastern countries that cooperate together in a base, such as The UAE andJordan andSaudi ArabiaThey all contribute to planning and providing defensive capabilities to help support Israel in the event of an attack from Iran.

Regarding the measures that would be taken if Iran attacked Israel, former General Chauvin pointed out that there are what they call militarily “rules of engagement,” which are governmental or political agreements that provide the conditions under which each party will theoretically intervene at the beginning.

“According to each nationality, you can fire according to the circumstances, the area and the type of targets, and this will be determined in writing and the political dimension will be applied to the army, and then there is the decision-making. But given the speed of the missiles’ launch, there may be rules of military engagement that are approved by politicians, leaving a margin of discretion for the soldiers tasked with destroying the target,” he explains.

The military expert believes that everything depends on where the Western forces are stationed: “For the French forces in Jordan, the Jordanian government can prevent the use of French air power or anti-missile power at a given moment.” There is also a base with French aircraft in the Emirates that could ideally intervene against Tehran, but the Gulf state’s refusal to allow Paris to use its airspace is a possibility.

If the Iranian attack relies on the air, it will be intercepted in cooperation with the Israeli forces through a coordination cell or a specific planning headquarters or the distribution of intervention areas, which means that the French can only intervene in Jordan, for example, and will not go to Iraq Or Israel, but they will remain in Jordanian airspace, according to the spokesman.

The French role

In turn, former British intelligence officer Philip Ingram explained that France is able to use the Air Force's Rafale aircraft from its military base in Jordan.

“While British and American aircraft were used in the first Iranian attack, I think the decision for Paris to use its aircraft remains a political one. But I know that the Jordanians provide air defence capabilities and help shoot down any missiles that fly over their airspace, which means anything that comes from Iran,” he added.

Asked about the maximum form of this international coalition, Ingram said they would implement defensive measures to intercept missiles, drones, and other aircraft launched at Israel and flying over international territory, without carrying out attacks on Iran or other countries directly.

The former French army general believes that the Iranian threat is gradually fading, which made him rule out Tehran taking this step, even though it has become involved in the matter and cannot escape what it called “revenge.”

Chauvin noted that as time passes, Western forces are better prepared and protecting themselves. “Politically, I don't see Iran surrendering, but I don't know how it can succeed in its military strategy.”

Former NATO planner Philip Ingram agrees, saying, “Iran feels embarrassed but is forced to respond. It has done so before, but it doesn’t have many missiles or a huge military force, so it seeks to avoid inciting conflict, especially since it knows it will be the loser, so it is calculating its steps very carefully.”

While a new round of prisoner swap negotiations is expected after the Doha talks, Ingram expects that Tehran may do something to save face if the negotiations end without an agreement.

“In this case, Iran will launch a lot of rockets without affecting civilian areas inside Israel, and they will provide as much notice as possible so that the international coalition and the Iron Dome can shoot them down,” he added.

But this tactic would be very risky because if the Iranian attack results in civilian casualties, the Israeli prime minister would be forced to Benjamin Netanyahu To respond and the escalation ladder will rise very quickly, a scenario that could lead to a large-scale war in the Middle East, according to Ingram.