Iran has been placed in a very critical situation, its country, its revolution, its status and its role, and in an unenviable state. Responding to the slaps that it and its allies received and are receiving from the Hebrew state may have consequences and consequences that it cannot bear. As for remaining silent and not responding, it will sink its credibility among its allies and followers, shake its image, and greatly affect its role and status regionally and internationally.
What was more harmful to Iran were the narratives presented by analysts and observers, which went beyond talking about Iranian hesitation or even inability to respond to the transgressions and violations of the Israelis, to talking about an Iranian-Israeli-American deal, in which Tehran presented Hezbollah as an easy prey to Israel, and abandoned About him in the hour of difficulty – other than fattening and unhelpful statements – in exchange for sharing influence in the Middle East, with the occupying state being the first master in the region, while Iran is content with the role of runner-up.
Conspiracy theorists inferred this with the astonishing information that reached the Hebrew state, which enabled it to direct harsh and precise strikes against its military and political leadership, all the way to Hassan Nasrallah, and to the party’s strategic sites, from missile sites to its weapons and ammunition depots. Some even go so far as to doubt that Hezbollah's intense security concern would not have been penetrated, as happened in the case of Al-Bayajer and others, unless there were Iranian reassurances at a high level.
Those who doubt the Iranian position and those who challenge it, who have been joined by media names who have appeared in the last decade on television channels and satellite channels, fiercely defending the axis of resistance, now come out in media interviews speaking in a shocking and frank manner, questioning and disparaging the Iranian role. Indeed, the statements of the Iranian president, especially in New York – and especially his flirtation with the Americans – prior to the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah provided the skeptics with significant ammunition.
Can the observer, the observer, and the generations who grew up listening to Iranian chants insulting America, and the most famous slogan: “Death to America,” chanted for decades until it reached the rites and rituals of Hajj, accept expressions at the Iranian presidential level praising America, while American-manufactured planes and munitions crush the children of Gaza and Lebanon, and the cover Does the American politician support the Zionists in their massacres, violations and transgressions?
Aside from questioning the Iranian position, which Iran was forced to respond to and deny regarding the issue of Ismail Haniyeh and his assassination in Tehran while he was in its hospitality, protection and patronage, the Iranian failure to respond to the assassination after the fiery statements, threats and Iranian intimidation, some considered it an Iranian response that acquiesces and acknowledges Israel’s main role in the region. While Tehran is retreating behind it out of fear and greed: fear of Israeli and American oppression and a desire to maintain its influence over Arab capitals and parts of the region.
If the issue of not responding to the assassination of Haniyeh, with all the fiery statements that followed it from high-ranking Iranian figures, led by Khamenei, shakes Iran’s credibility and opens the door wide to question its positions, then leaving Hezbollah in the field alone in the face of Israel – and its bloodshed and massacres In Lebanon, Hezbollah's popular incubator – and the overwhelming American support for it, and after the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, who did not stop declaring his absolute loyalty to Iran and its Velayat-e Faqih regime, are matters that will have many consequences and dangerous repercussions for Iran as a state and a revolution.
Even the Iranian statements about what happened in Lebanon and what its ally Hezbollah was exposed to, which are naturally insufficient, are marred by contradiction and ambiguity. At times, you hear that Hezbollah is capable of repelling the aggression, and at other times you say that it cannot stand alone against a country that the West supports and supplies with weapons.
The region is being reshaped and reorganized, facing critical turning points and crossroads in general, and Iran in particular. Tehran found that silence and contentment with statements and verbal threats would encourage Israel to persist in its strikes, transgressions, and liquidation of militia leaders within its orbit, and would undermine its credibility with its allies in countries where it has militias and influence, and who might rebel against it. It saw that the opportunity was ripe – with Israel preoccupied with several matters. Fronts – A thoughtful response will restore some of its prestige and preserve its position among its allies and followers.
The indirect Iranian apology to its followers and allies began with the Iranian president’s statement that Western countries lied to and deceived Iran after the assassination of Haniyeh by promising to cease fire on Gaza, in exchange for not retaliating and responding to the targeting of the Palestinian leader on their lands and in their hospitality.
Tehran struck Israel suddenly, and clearly stated that it targeted military, not civilian, installations in the occupying state, and that it would escalate and strike the infrastructure if Israel responded to Tuesday’s strikes.
What is understood from this is that Iran considered its strike sufficient and sufficient, and that it will not escalate, and what it wants may not go beyond saving its face.
The ball is now in the Israeli court. If an ecstatic Israel and its political and military leadership (especially the extremists) respond and seize the opportunity to target the nuclear sites, then we are facing a fireball that is rolling in a way that is difficult to predict. However, if Washington and its allies exert pressure on the occupation to limit itself to a severe response to the “axis of resistance.” “On the part of the parties, not the heart, in exchange for military and political bribes, we may witness containment of the escalation, and the Hebrew state will try to compensate for the psychological and moral shock of Tuesday, October 1, with more painful strikes against Hezbollah and Iran’s allies in the region, to the best of its ability.
The opinions expressed in the article do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera Network.