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Before each day’s play in Melbourne, we’ll preview three must-see matches.
Jessica Pegula vs. Elise Mertens
Pegula, the seventh seed, has a number of difficult opponents in her quarter: Coco Gauff, Karolina Muchova, Paula Badosa, to name a few. But she can’t look ahead to any of them, because the trickiest foe of all for her might be right across the net in Margaret Court Arena on Wednesday morning. In three previous matches against Mertens, Pegula has taken just one set. Their most recent meeting, at Roland Garros in 2023, ended in rapid fashion, 6-1, 6-3 in favor of the Belgian.
Just as ominous, Mertens—who is ranked 34th, two spots out of the seedings—has started the season well. She reached the final of her first event, in Hobart, and saved two match points in her first-round win over Viktorija Golubic. She may feel she’s already playing with house money.
⬆️ WATCH ABOVE: Jessica Pegula’s Wrapping Skills Are 10/10
Then again, Pegula also made the final of her first tournament, in Adelaide, and she’s a three-time quarterfinalist at the Australian Open. She likes a quick hard court, and the surface Down Under has been getting faster. She had no trouble dismissing 18-year-old wild card Maya Joint in the first round.
What explains Mertens’ success against Pegula? They play similar games, hitting hard and mostly flat, without a ton of spin or variation, and they both like to use their opponents’ pace against them. Since their last meeting, Pegula has made a coaching change—and a run to her first major final. Maybe the confidence from that, and playing on her favorite surface, will be enough to finally get her across the finish line against the Belgian. Winner: Pegula
