World shipping will slow to 1.4% in 2022: UNCTAD

The sea ​​transport world slowed down from year-on-year growth of 3.2% in 2021 to an increase of 1.4% in 2022, estimated the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

In its Shipping Review 2022 report, UNCTAD forecasts that the growth of the maritime trade it could even grow less this year if headwinds intensify.

The war in Ukraine it has led to changes in trade patterns and partners, generally expanding the distances goods have to travel, as evidenced by an increase in total “ton-miles”.

“The pandemic and war have hardened geopolitical risks and provided more reasons to withdraw from globalization, and have accelerated other trends in consumer behavior with broader digitization,” UNCTAD said.

The maritime landscape is also transforming due to the demands for greater resistance and sustainability and the need to decarbonizewhich requires stakeholders to quickly adjust to change while remaining relevant, profitable, and customer-focused.

International maritime trade flows, which had decreased by 3.8% in 2020, recovered in 2021 with a growth of 3.2%, to a total of 10.985 million tons, only slightly below pre-pandemic levels.

The recovery was favored by the relief of the pandemicwith a corresponding general improvement in economic conditions and increased consumer spending.

However, the reactivation of maritime trade continued to be limited, not only by the recurring interruptions of the pandemic of Covid-19but also because of unprecedented port congestion and a global logistics gridlock.

These constraints, compounded by equipment and labor shortages, further translated into increased freight rates and less reliable services.

In 2022, the fragile recovery ran out of steam. There were further disturbances from the war in Ukraine, which contributed to the global rise in inflation and the cost of living.

At the same time, there were new waves of Covid-19 that further disrupted supply chains, especially in China, which had a zero Covid policy. The world now faces the prospect of recession y stagflation.

UNCTAD believes that policy makers should keep an eye on long-term goals. The immediate disruptions should be seen as “opportunities for positive structural change”: for shipping to embrace digitization and decarbonization and transition to alternative energy sources.

From their perspective: “In an increasingly unpredictable environment, policy makers can engineer new forms of resilience and build more secure supply chains that prevent further fragmentation of the global trading system.”

roberto.morales@eleconomista.mx