World trade volume increased 2.0% in November 2021 compared to October, showing a slightly improving trend, reported the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB).
Earlier, world trade showed month-on-month growth rates of -0.8% in September and 1.1% in October.
November’s growth is mainly due to advanced economies, where both imports (3.6%) and exports (2.8%) have grown strongly.
China’s exports showed a decrease of 4.1%, while imports continued with a modest growth of 1.2 percent.
The results of imports corresponding to November 2021, month against month, were of increases for the United States (4.3%), the Euro Zone (3.5%), Japan (6.4%) and Latin America (0.6 percent).
While there was a 2.6% decline in exports in the United States, increases were reported for the Euro Zone (2.0%), Japan (9.1%) and Latin America (2.3 percent).
Overall, relative to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projection of world trade, the recovery varies across regions.
According to these estimates, the exports of China, the Dynamic Economies of Asia and Japan would have recovered strongly in all of 2021, with a projected increase of 16.75, 13.25 and 11.25% respectively, in some cases above the expected trajectory before the crisis. pandemic.
From an OECD perspective, export growth in these economies will slow in 2022 as base effects fade and some important drivers of the 2021 dynamic fade, notably the exceptional boost in demand for medical equipment. and telecommuting related to the pandemic.
However, strong global activity will generally support trade.
The OECD forecasts that exports from the euro area and the United States will grow 6 and 3.5% in 2022, after 9.3 and 3.5%, respectively, in 2021.
Strong domestic demand momentum in the United States has already lifted imports in 2021 and the momentum should continue into 2022.
It also expects global current account imbalances to narrow slightly by the end of 2021 and stabilize thereafter: but remain subdued by historical standards.
In turn, enhanced global vaccination efforts, which are supposed to allow full removal of restrictions on cross-border activities by the end of 2022, supportive macroeconomic policies, accommodative financial conditions, and lower household savings should improve. demand and offset headwinds from the gradual withdrawal of fiscal measures related to the pandemic.
However, the OECD expects the recovery to remain uneven. Most advanced economies are projected to return to their pre-pandemic output path by 2023, but with higher debt and still moderate underlying growth potential.
roberto.morales@eleconomista.mx
