World trade to hit record $32 trillion by 2022: UNCTAD

World trade will reach a record level of some 32 trillion dollars in 2022, estimated the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in a report released Tuesday.

While UNCTAD expects trade in goods to amount to almost $25 trillion (an increase of about 10% from 2021), it projects trade in services to amount to almost $7 trillion (an increase of about 15% from 2021). 2021).

These record levels are largely due to strong growth in the first half of 2022.

By contrast, trade growth has been subdued during the second half of the year.

During the third quarter of 2022, trade in goods decreased by approximately 1% compared to the second quarter of 2022. In turn, trade in services increased by approximately 1.3% during the same period.

UNCTAD’s current forecasts indicate that the value of world trade will decline in the fourth quarter of 2022, for both goods and services.

While the value of international merchandise trade has stabilized during the second half of 2022, the volume of trade increased during the third quarter of 2022 and is expected to continue to increase during the fourth quarter.

The positive growth in the volume of international trade indicates the resilience of global demand.

But deteriorating economic conditions and increased uncertainty have led to a slowdown in trade during the second half of 2022.

In addition, the decline in world trade has been nominal, as the volume of trade continued to increase throughout 2022, a sign of the resilience of global demand.

Part of the decrease in the value of international trade during the second half of 2022 is due to the decrease in the prices of primary products, especially energy.

By contrast, the prices of intermediate inputs and internationally traded consumer goods have continued to rise over the same period, raising additional concerns about the persistence of global inflation.

The decline in the value of world trade has so far been limited to merchandise.

Trade in services has been more resilient and its value has continued to increase during the second half of 2022. The current slowdown in trade is expected to worsen in 2023.

roberto.morales@eleconomista.mx