AL MVP: Aaron Judge, Yankees
While Seattle’s Cal Raleigh is authoring a historically powerful first half for a catcher, New York Yankees captain Aaron Judge is assembling a season so spectacular that it overrides any discussion of voter fatigue. Acknowledging Raleigh’s special year is essential, but Judge’s performance simply cannot be denied.
Judge is on pace for a season of historic proportions. His projected full-season numbers include a .360/.468/.737 slash line, 60 home runs, 146 runs, 136 RBIs, 103 extra-base hits, and a 231 OPS+. No player in MLB history has ever matched all of those benchmarks in a single season. Lowering the standards to 59 home runs adds only Babe Ruth (1921). To find other comparable seasons, one must continue to lower the statistical bars, which only reinforces the magnitude of Judge’s campaign.
His dominance is comprehensive. Judge’s OPS+ is 240 on the road and 225 at home; it’s 235 against winning teams and 230 against losing ones. He hits for a high average in nearly every conceivable situation: .347 against starters, .382 against relievers, .366 with runners in scoring position, and .364 in night games. He has even hit more home runs away from Yankee Stadium (18) than at his home park (16).
Ultimately, Judge leads Raleigh in OPS by nearly 200 points, has reached base 40 more times, and has created 31 more runs. While the demands of the catcher position are immense, they don’t close the gap on a player who is once again towering over the sport.
AL MVP Top Five: Judge, Raleigh, Tarik Skubal, Jeremy Peña, Bobby Witt Jr.
NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
Much like the AL race, the National League MVP discussion confronts the challenge of “Ohtani fatigue,” as the Dodgers superstar builds a case for his fourth such award. While the defensive wizardry and dynamic play of Chicago’s Pete Crow-Armstrong (PCA) make him a worthy contender, Ohtani’s offensive production places him in a class of his own.
Though PCA’s defense and baserunning are elite, Ohtani holds a commanding offensive edge, leading in slugging percentage by over 70 points, OPS by more than 150 points, and on-base percentage by 80 points. Ohtani has also reached base nearly 50 more times.
At his current pace, Ohtani is on track for 54 homers, 12 triples, 153 runs, and 21 steals with a 176 OPS+. The only players in history to post comparable numbers across those categories are Willie Mays (1955) and Babe Ruth (1921), placing Ohtani in the most exclusive of company. His offense has been indispensable for a Dodgers team that has seen Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman struggle for stretches.
And, of course, Ohtani contributes on the mound. Only one player has ever hit at least 10 home runs and pitched in the World Series in the same year: Babe Ruth in 1918. While another player may one day deserve the award over him, 2025 is not that year.
NL MVP Top Five: Ohtani, Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker, Zack Wheeler, James Wood.
AL LVP: Luis Robert Jr., White Sox
Tasked with the simple goals of staying healthy and performing well enough to become a valuable trade asset, White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. has failed on both fronts, making him the clear frontrunner for Least Valuable Player.
His season has been defined by profound underperformance. Among AL hitters with at least 275 plate appearances, Robert Jr.’s .185 batting average is the worst. This isn’t a slump; it’s a season-long struggle, with batting averages below .200 in April, May, and June. His home/road splits offer no solace, as he is hitting .197 in Chicago and .174 elsewhere.
The issues are magnified in crucial moments. In high-leverage situations, Robert Jr. is batting a mere .123 with three times as many strikeouts (21) as hits (seven). In 28 plate appearances in the ninth inning, he has just three hits and 11 strikeouts, producing a .120/.214/.160 slash line. While a second-half turnaround is always possible, his first-half performance has been undeniably disappointing.
AL LVP “Bottom Three”: Robert, Adolis García, Anthony Rendon.
NL LVP: Michael Harris II, Braves
Just three years after being named National League Rookie of the Year, Michael Harris II of the Atlanta Braves is experiencing a dramatic reversal of fortune. The one-time budding superstar has become one of the least productive offensive players in the sport.
Among all qualified major-league hitters, Harris ranks last in both OPS+ (52) and Weighted Runs Created+ (46). His plate discipline has evaporated; he has not drawn a walk since May 18, a span of 43 games and 158 plate appearances. Consequently, he also ranks last in walk percentage (2.8%) and on-base percentage (.232). The only Brave in the divisional era to post a full season with a walk rate and OBP that low was Andrés Thomas in 1989.
To put his .208/.232/.313 slash line in perspective, it compares unfavorably to the hitting lines of Braves pitching legends like Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine in their best offensive seasons. In a disappointing year for Atlanta, Harris’s precipitous decline has been one of the most significant factors.
NL LVP “Bottom Three”: Harris, Ozzie Albies, Bryan Reynolds.
AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal, Tigers
In a strong field of contenders, Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal has distinguished himself as the most dominant pitcher in the American League, making a compelling case for a second consecutive Cy Young Award.
Skubal’s command is absolute. Opponents are hitting under .200 against him regardless of their handedness or the venue. Cleanup hitters have managed a paltry .120/.151/.140 slash line. Left-handed batters are hitting just .179/.189/.192 with only one extra-base hit and one walk against 30 strikeouts.
He has been virtually unbeatable since April. In his last 16 starts, the Tigers are 14-2, while Skubal himself is 10-0 with a 1.62 ERA, 138 strikeouts, and only 10 walks. This historic stretch puts him in the company of Greg Maddux (1995) and Clayton Kershaw (2016) as the only pitchers in the modern era with a 16-start span featuring at least 100 strikeouts, 10 or fewer walks, and an ERA below 2.00.
Furthermore, Skubal leads the AL in WHIP, strikeout rate, and ERA. Every qualifying starter in the last 50 years to lead his league in all three metrics has won the Cy Young, with the notable exception of Pedro Martinez, a pitcher to whom Skubal is increasingly compared.
AL Cy Young Top Five: Skubal, Hunter Brown, Max Fried, Jacob deGrom, Garrett Crochet.
NL Cy Young: Zack Wheeler, Phillies
The National League Cy Young race presents a fascinating debate between the historic ERA of Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes and the comprehensive dominance of Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler. While Skenes is on track for a second straight season with a sub-2.00 ERA—a feat matched only by Sandy Koufax, Greg Maddux, and Clayton Kershaw in the last 75 years—Wheeler’s overall body of work gives him the edge.
Wheeler leads the NL in WHIP, strikeouts, strikeout rate, and opponent batting average. He has also been a workhorse, leading Skenes in innings per start, pitches per start, and quality starts. Historically, his statistical profile is a blueprint for a Cy Young winner. The only qualifying pitchers to post an ERA as low as Wheeler’s (2.17) while leading their league in WHIP, strikeouts, strikeout rate, and opponent average were Pedro Martinez (1999, 2000) and Tom Seaver (1973)—all of whom won the award.
What separates Wheeler further is his performance in high-stakes matchups. Since May, in five starts against playoff-caliber teams, he has a 1.20 ERA, with opponents hitting just .170 against him. In a race this close, that big-game ace factor serves as the ultimate separator.
NL Cy Young Top Five: Wheeler, Skenes, Logan Webb, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Andrew Abbott.
AL Cy Yuk: Walker Buehler, Red Sox
Just nine months removed from his World Series heroics with the Dodgers, Walker Buehler’s first season in Boston has been a disaster, representing a stark disconnect between his $21.05 million salary and his on-field results.
Buehler’s 6.12 ERA is the highest among AL starters with a comparable workload. His 1.56 WHIP and .367 opponent on-base percentage are second-worst in the league. The .856 opponent OPS he has allowed is the worst among AL starters, effectively transforming every lineup he faces into one more potent than All-Stars like Bobby Witt Jr. or Vlad Guerrero Jr.
His struggles are particularly acute on the road, where he has posted an abysmal 8.66 ERA, with opponents slashing .342/.405/.581. With runners on base, hitters have a .965 OPS against him. For a pitcher once bound for stardom, this season has been a shocking regression.
AL Cy Yuk “Bottom Three”: Buehler, Luis Severino, Bailey Ober.
NL Cy Yuk: Antonio Senzatela, Rockies
While pitching in Colorado presents unique challenges, Antonio Senzatela’s 2025 season has been historically poor, even by Coors Field standards. He has distinguished himself from his struggling rotation mates to become the clear choice for NL Cy Yuk.
Opponents are hitting .354 against Senzatela, a mark that would be the worst for any full-time starting pitcher in 95 years. His hittability is staggering: he allows nearly three times as many hits (13.8 per nine innings) as he records strikeouts (4.8 per nine innings). Only one other starter since 1901, Les Sweetland in 1930, has posted a strikeout rate so low and a hits-allowed rate so high.
This is not merely a Coors Field phenomenon. Senzatela’s road ERA (6.43) is nearly identical to his home ERA (6.75), and opponents are hitting .380 against him at sea level. The problems start immediately; the first time through the order, opposing lineups hit .389/.422/.569 against him—a slash line comparable to Ty Cobb’s 1917 season. With just one quality start in 18 tries, Senzatela’s season has been one of unprecedented struggle.
NL Cy Yuk “Bottom Three”: Senzatela, Germán Márquez, Jordan Romano.
AL Rookie of the Year: Jacob Wilson, Athletics
Oakland Athletics shortstop Jacob Wilson is producing a rookie season unlike any seen in decades, defined by an elite batting average and a remarkable ability to make contact in an era of strikeouts.
Wilson is on pace to become the first rookie since Fred Lynn 50 years ago to hit .330 or higher (excluding Ichiro Suzuki in 2001). His combination of high average and low strikeout rate is particularly rare. He currently has 85 more hits than strikeouts and is on track for over 200 hits with fewer than 50 strikeouts—a feat accomplished by a rookie only twice in the last 90 years (Johnny Pesky, 1942; Harvey Kuenn, 1953).
With a strikeout rate of just 7.3%, Wilson joins a list of rookies since WWII to pair a K-rate that low with a .330+ average that includes only Hall of Famers Richie Ashburn, Wade Boggs, and Ichiro. The historic significance of his performance makes him the easiest selection of the midseason awards.
AL Rookie of the Year Top Five: Wilson, Carlos Narváez, Cam Smith, Nick Kurtz, Jasson Domínguez.
NL Rookie of the Year: Drake Baldwin, Braves
In a strong National League rookie class, Braves catcher Drake Baldwin has emerged as the frontrunner by excelling on both sides of the ball, positioning himself to join an esteemed list of Rookie of the Year catchers.
Baldwin’s 2.1 FanGraphs WAR trails only the two NL All-Star catchers, placing him ahead of established veterans and demonstrating his immediate impact. He is delivering a .276/.351/.486 slash line with a 133 OPS+, a level of offensive production rarely seen from a rookie catcher. Historically, only Hall of Famers Mike Piazza and Carlton Fisk, along with future Hall of Famer Buster Posey, have won the award with a comparable or better slash line.
Crucially, Baldwin has earned the trust of the Braves’ pitching staff. An analysis of pitchers’ ERAs shows that key arms like Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach have performed better with Baldwin behind the plate than with veteran Sean Murphy. This combination of offensive prowess and defensive reliability makes him the midseason choice.
NL Rookie of the Year Top Five: Baldwin, Agustín Ramírez, Jacob Misiorowski, Chad Patrick, Caleb Durbin.
Managers of the Year: A.J. Hinch, Tigers, and Craig Counsell, Cubs
The midseason Manager of the Year honors go to A.J. Hinch of the Detroit Tigers and Craig Counsell of the Chicago Cubs, two leaders whose teams have dramatically outperformed preseason expectations. Since Opening Day, the Tigers’ and Cubs’ playoff odds have seen the largest improvements in their respective leagues, a testament to the guidance of their managers.
Their value extends beyond the standings. Tigers President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris praised Hinch’s ability to build trust, stating, “He’s the perfect manager for this young team.” Likewise, Cubs President Jed Hoyer lauded Counsell as a “five-tool manager” who excels in-game, with player relations, and in collaboration with the front office.
Both Hinch and Counsell have separated themselves with their comprehensive, modern approach to managing, making them the clear choices at the season’s midpoint.
AL Manager of the Year Top Five: Hinch, Joe Espada, John Schneider, Kevin Cash, Dan Wilson.
NL Manager of the Year Top Five: Counsell, Pat Murphy, Bob Melvin, Rob Thomson, Oliver Marmol.
