U.S. oil executives are intensifying efforts to increase domestic supply, with industry leaders forecasting a potential low point for prices in 2026. This push is centered in the Permian Basin, the heart of an American oil and gas revival spurred by administration policies aimed at energy independence.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth anticipates a market rebalance in the coming years. “We’re prepared for prices in ’26 to be lower than they were in ’25,” Wirth said. “That’s the current outlook… the market will come back into balance and I think we’ll see prices restored to a level a little bit higher, and ’26 may be a low point.”
Other industry leaders echoed this focus on navigating market conditions. “Economics drive capital allocation decisions,” said Diamondback Energy CEO Kaes Van’t Hof, noting oil’s price of $57 a barrel. “We’re going to find ways to reduce costs, cut our emissions, and make our break-evens lower to live to fight another day.”
The Permian Basin, a vast shale region under Texas and New Mexico, is central to this strategy. It is the world’s largest secure oil supply, accounting for 40% of U.S. production—a figure projected to hit 70% by 2040.
“That’s why the Permian Basin is so amazing,” Van’t Hof added. “It’s been producing for over 100 years… and here we are now producing over 6 million barrels a day, which on its own would be the third-largest oil-producing country in the world.”
This production boom has shifted the global energy landscape. Wirth highlighted that U.S. oil and gas production now surpasses the combined output of Saudi Arabia and Russia, a reversal from two decades ago when their combined production was three times that of the United States.
Executives emphasized that this energy abundance is a matter of both economic strength and national security, reducing reliance on adversaries like Russia and Iran. “Energy security and national security are linked,” Wirth stated. “We now have an administration that wants to see the energy industry invest in those resources to make sure that America’s energy strength translates into economic strength and competitiveness and, importantly, security.”
Despite the current focus on increasing supply, some warn of future volatility. Oil executive Harold Hamm recently cautioned that the global oversupply could be gone in approximately 18 months. “We need to watch out for some price shocks after that point,” Hamm warned. “Energy independence is so important to us.”
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