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Analysts say that any mistake by Tehran and Tel Aviv would ignite a war on several fronts, but Iran would not risk waging such a war if it was not targeted, and Israel is not interested in threatening its home front.
Occupied Jerusalem – During the year 2021, the Israeli army intensified in an unprecedented manner its maneuvers that simulate a confrontation on several fronts, in an effort to raise its readiness in light of what it describes as the security risks that surround it from the “ring countries”.
The maneuvers come in light of repeated statements by senior Israeli officials that they expect an escalation in the region, and within a scenario in which the Israeli army is fighting a war on several fronts with Lebanon, Syria and the Gaza Strip, in addition to cyber warfare and electronic attacks.
In a remarkable transformation, the Israeli occupation army conducted maneuvers in Arab towns simulating a ground incursion into the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon, as well as the outbreak of unrest inside the Palestinian and the West Bank in the event of a war on one of the fronts, as happened during the last aggression on Gaza and the widespread confrontations in May 2021.
The challenges facing Israel are becoming more and more ambiguous during 2022, according to security and military assessments and analysts of research centers, with a long series of global, local and regional events that affected the Israeli scene during 2021, which was called the “Year of Maneuvers.”
Is Israel fighting a war on several fronts during 2022?
Israeli security assessments and analyzes unanimously agree that the armed resistance factions on various fronts – especially Hezbollah and the Hamas and Islamic Jihad movements – are not interested in an escalation to the point of a comprehensive confrontation with Israel.
However, analysts believe that any escalation may develop into a war on several fronts if the tension between Iran and Israel over the Iranian nuclear project reaches the point of confrontation and military confrontation.
According to a document issued by the Israeli National Security Research Center at Tel Aviv University regarding the estimates, strategies and challenges facing Israel in 2022, Tel Aviv is required to prepare for a military option against Iran, and for a scenario in which Tehran establishes itself as a country with the ability to produce a nuclear bomb within few months.
Is Israel’s targeting of the Iranian nuclear project serious?
According to the Israeli consensus, Iran’s nuclear program has been defined as the most serious threat to Israel and its national security, on the pretext that Iran is gaining the necessary knowledge and experience for nuclear weapons, is advancing in uranium enrichment to high levels, and has begun producing metallic uranium suitable for a military rather than a civilian nuclear program.
Faced with these challenges, Yoav Shtern, an Israeli researcher specializing in Arab and Palestinian affairs, says that “Israel found itself before the military option against Iran’s nuclear facilities, regardless of whether the major powers returned to the nuclear agreement or not.”
Shtern stressed that any mistake by Tehran or Tel Aviv would ignite a war on several fronts, but Iran would not risk waging such a war if it was not targeted, just as Israel is not interested in threatening its home front.
What about the Israeli preparations for a comprehensive confrontation on several fronts?
The intensive maneuvers that simulate a war on several fronts reflect Israel’s readiness and arming it with the necessary mechanisms and means of combat for such a scenario, and by strengthening the defense and missile system to fortify the home front, as well as enhancing its offensive capacity.
But all these preparations – says Ron Ben Yishai, a military analyst on the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper website – do not necessarily mean that Israel is interested in a comprehensive confrontation, and that the armed factions are not interested in escalation and are aware of Israel’s capabilities, and that in the event of a comprehensive confrontation, Israel will be in an existential battle and will use lethal weapons And it will cause mass destruction to the armed factions.
The military analyst does not rule out that Israel will resort to surprise and initiate the attack, and not be satisfied with reacting to the attacks of the armed factions, whether on the Gaza front or even Syria and the northern front with Lebanon.
However, can the Israeli home front stand an all-out war?
Israeli researchers describe the home front as “fragile” and not sufficiently equipped for a simultaneous war on several fronts, and it is also not immune from missile attacks that may affect the Israeli targets that are expected to be attacked.
In addition to civilian bodies, it is expected that Israeli air defense batteries, oil refineries in Haifa, power plants, water desalination facilities, chemical warehouses, gas extraction platforms, the Prime Minister’s Office, the Ministry of Security in Tel Aviv, the General Staff, and military bases will be targeted. military.
Despite the claims of the Israeli army about the improvement of the security situation, Zvi Barel, an Arab affairs analyst in the Haaretz newspaper, confirms that the home front in Israel is not ready for an all-out war.
Barel refers to scenarios in which thousands of remotely-guided missiles fall from Iran and Iraq and from various fronts in the depth of Israel, which suffers from a lack of shelters and health infrastructure, and says that such a war may incur hundreds of casualties to Israel.
What are Israel’s priorities in the face of multiple fronts?
Udi Dekel, director of the Israeli National Security Research Institute, says that the scenario of a war between Israel and Iran involving Hezbollah and pro-Iranian militias in Syria and western Iraq is “certainly realistic,” and that such a war could break out on Israel’s northern front as well as the Gaza front.
He believes that Israel must restore deterrence, take the initiative to attack, not rely on reaction and defense, and take advantage of opportunities to destroy Hezbollah’s capabilities and its accurate missile stockpile, as well as destroy the arsenal of armed factions in Gaza.
According to Dekel, Israel must fortify the home front by ensuring that no disturbances occur in the Arab towns inside, and refraining from escalating tension in the West Bank to prevent the collapse of the Palestinian Authority, since the Israeli home front with all its components and common denominators constitutes a crucial weakness in the war.
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