China is also interested in the elections in Paraguay

Assumption. Paraguayans will vote on Sunday in their most uncertain presidential election, amid accusations of corruption and the penetration of organized crime, to choose between the economist Santiago Peña, of the ruling Colorado Party, and the lawyer Efraín Alegre, at the head of a concertation of center-left.

With opposing positions both locally and in foreign policy, in which Alegre questions diplomatic relations with Taiwan and Peña defends them, both nevertheless agree in rejecting the legalization of abortion.

Paraguay is one of the few countries that maintains ties with Taiwan, but shortly after the break decided in March by Honduras, Alegre considered that these relations “mean the loss of one of the largest markets, which is China.”

“Paraguay makes a very important effort, a very big resignation to have relations with Taiwan, but we are not seeing the same effort from Taiwan,” he told AFP.

¿Alternancia?

The right-wing Peña, 44, a former economy minister and former member of the Central Bank board, faces the challenge of retaining power for the Colorado Party, which has governed almost uninterruptedly since the 1950s but comes to these elections very divided, with some of its most important leaders sanctioned by the United States for corruption.

Alegre, who at the age of 60 is running for the presidency for the third time, is facing his best opportunity, with the support of a broad coalition that elected him in primaries last December.

The latest polls suggest a technical tie, an unprecedented scenario because although in the previous 2018 elections the current Colorado president Mario Abdo Benítez won Alegre with a difference of 3.7%, the polls had given him a more important difference.

“This is not won with polls, it is not won with a resume. This is won with the popular vote that is manifested on election day,” Peña said in an interview with AFP.

final day

The presidential elections in Paraguay are in a single round, which is why they will be defined this Sunday in favor of whoever gets the most votes and without the need for an absolute majority.

The 4.8 million voters will also choose the next parliament of 45 senators and 80 deputies, as well as 17 governors.

The most recent survey by the firm Atlas, carried out between April 20 and 24 with a margin of error of 2 percentage points, gave a voting intention of 34.3% to Alegre and 32.8% to Peña. In third place is Paraguayo Cubas, an anti-system rightist, with an upward curve that takes him to 23%.

But it will be the conformation of Congress that determines governability, with a Colorado Party that can divide into two benches, among those who support former president Horacio Cartes (2013-2018), sanctioned for corruption by the United States and political godfather of Peña, and those of President Abdo, openly opposed.

“The worst opposition that Peña will have, if he wins, will be within his party, not outside of it,” commented political analyst Sebastián Acha.

Corruption and penetration of organized crime are on the list of mutual accusations of the two currents of the ruling party, with Vice President Hugo Velázquez also sanctioned by the United States.

“We are going to fight corruption and hired assassins. We are going to defeat the Paraguayan Pablo Escobar Gaviria and his “Chili” (servant) Santiago Peña. On Sunday I will be elected president,” Alegre launched at his closing campaign on Thursday night.

the tasks to do

The next government will have to face the fight against poverty and inequalities in an unfavorable global economic environment.

With an economy driven by exports of agricultural products, the Central Bank forecasts a growth of 4.8% of GDP in 2023. The IMF calculated it at 4.5%, one of the highest in Latin America.

But poverty reaches 24.7% of the 7.5 million inhabitants and extreme poverty 5.6%, according to the 2022 household survey by the National Institute of Statistics.

In Asunción, the contrasts are evident between the luxurious office towers built in recent years and the flimsy shacks washed away by the Paraguay River with each flood.

“We are not going to vote. There is no serious proposal for poor people,” said Albino Cubas, a 41-year-old private security guard who lost his home in the latest flood.

The economic consultant Rubén Ramírez agreed that “Paraguay’s big problem is not having achieved a better balance in income distribution to achieve greater equity.”

“The next government is going to face a complex global scenario. There is unpredictability regarding the evolution of commodity prices, in a global context of inflation,” he said.