The way Tuesday’s final round of Euro 2020 Group B matches played out was an illustration of tournament football at its very best.
The end result — where Denmark turned its early-tournament despair into delight by beating Russia 4-1 — saw three teams locked on three points each, separated only by goal difference, with Denmark the team to progress.
However, this result meant that five other, unrelated teams also celebrated their qualification for the knockout stages, highlighting one of the many flaws in this tournament’s format.
So, while England, Czech Republic, France, Sweden and Switzerland can now all look forward to the knockout rounds, some pundits have used this quirk to highlight the lack of real jeopardy for the group stages.
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Why do third-placed teams qualify?
At Euro 2020, the 24 teams are split into six groups of four, who each play each other once.
The top two in each group then qualify for the last 16, along with the four best third-placed teams.
Portugal benefitted from this qualification quirk in 2016, finishing third in their group with three draws before going on to win the tournament overall.
Czech Republic, England, France, Sweden and Switzerland are all guaranteed to qualify because they already have four points.
Of the three groups that have already completed their fixtures, Finland and Ukraine both finished third with three points, meaning those two teams are primed to miss out as the two worst third-placed finishers.
There are a multitude of scenarios that could play out yet though, meaning Finland and Ukraine are completely not out of contention.
They do have to hope that any other team that finishes third in their groups will have a worse goal difference than their -2 and -1 respectively, which could only realistically be Slovakia (Group E), Germany or Portugal (Group F).
How did Group B play out?
Going into the final two matches of Group B, Finland, Russia and Denmark all had a chance of joining Belgium in the last 16 — as long as they won.
AP: Jonathan Nackstrand
)With the Russia-Denmark and Finland-Belgium games being played simultaneously — a relic from the 1982 World Cup, where West Germany and Austria conspired to manufacture a 1-0 win that favoured both sides at the expense of Algeria, a match forever known as the Disgrace of Gijon — the crowd at Copenhagen’s Parken Stadium was on tenterhooks.
This was illustrated best in the 69th minute, when a ripple of cheering could be heard around the stadium, unrelated to anything happening on the pitch.
That’s because, 1,500km to the east in St Petersburg, Belgium had just broken the deadlock against Finland through Romalu Lukaku, a goal that meant Denmark was in pole position to take second spot in Group B — ahead of Finland and Russia.
However, in the space of 60 seconds, that delight had turned into despair.
In St Petersberg, Lukaku’s goal was in the process of being ruled out for the most minute of offside calls, while in front of their eyes Alexander Sobolev was theatrically tumbling in the penalty area after contact from Jannik Vestergaard.
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Artem Dzyuba smashed home the penalty for Russia and Denmark’s lead was slashed to a far-more precarious 2-1 — while Finland kept hold of its second place in the group on account of it drawing with Belgium.
Then, in the 76th minute, the cheering rippled around Parken Stadium once again — this time Belgium scored a goal that stood thanks to an own goal that will take pride of place among this list of the best so far this tournament. Denmark was going through.
AP/Pool: Jonathan Nackstrand
)That ripple of appreciation then turned into a roar of delirium as Andreas Christensen and Joakim Maehle smashed in two more sensational goals to see the Danes into the knockout rounds, the first team in European Championship history to do so having lost their first two group stage games.
So this result shows this is a good thing?
Well, on the face of it, yes, this Group B finale was excellent.
And yet, had there only been two teams qualify from the group, it would have still been excellent — and still maintained interest and excitement in the other games that now only serve to determine finishing positions.
If England and Czech Republic still needed a point to be certain of qualification from Group D, for example, their match at Wembley takes on real significance.
Instead, there is nothing riding on that game other than to try and win the group — although that might not be all that beneficial, see below — with the only do-or-die clash taking place between Scotland and Croatia at Hampden Park — with both teams chasing a win that will take them to four points and qualification.
AP: David Josek
)In Group E, it’s more complex.
Sweden is through, meaning it could potentially rest players heading into its final game against Poland, which has to win to have a chance of progressing.
If it does win and Spain loses to Slovakia — which also needs a least a point to qualify — then Spain will be knocked out. If Spain draws with Slovakia and Sweden wins, then it will likely qualify as one of the best third-placed teams without winning a game.
In the nominal group of death, Group F, France is already through, meaning the result of its match with Portugal carries little to no significance.
AP: Matthias Hangst
)Assuming Germany beats Hungary, then all three of the major teams from that group will qualify.
Does England or Czech Republic actually want to win Group D?
With qualification now guaranteed, England and the Czech Republic are faced with a similar conundrum that the Three Lions faced at the 2018 World Cup — do either actually want to win the group?
England or Czech Republic will win the group if they win their final match against each other, but the Czech’s superior goal difference means a draw will see them top the ladder.
Would it be better to finish second? Probably.
AP: Frank Augstein
)The winner of Group D faces the runner-up from Group F — the so-called group of death featuring France, Germany, Portugal and Hungary.
The runner-up will meet the second-placed finisher from Group E, which could be any one of the already qualified Sweden, Slovakia, Spain or even Poland, such is the tightness of that particular group.
Finishing third — which is still a possibility for the loser of Wednesday morning’s (AEST) game at Wembley should Scotland or Croatia win big in their match at Hampden Park — would mean taking on either Belgium or the winners of Group E.
Although England and Czech Republic are both through, Scotland and Croatia, currently on one point each, will essentially playoff for a chance to qualify.
A win for either of those teams means it will either finish in second or third in the group, depending on the result of the England-Czech Republic match.
So, although there is still a fair amount to play for, there is still a nagging feeling that under different conditions, there would be even more at stake.
