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The former Israeli Prime Minister explained Ehud Barak In an exclusive interview with Newsweek magazine, he described what he called the four “challenges” that Israel faces, in its ongoing war against the movement agitation And the Palestinian resistance in Gaza.
Barak – who was prime minister between July 1999 and March 2001 – believes that what his country is going through today is the most important issue it faces, warning of four challenges that he says must affect the “Operation Iron Swords” that the Israeli army has been carrying out since October 8, in response to Operation “Al-Aqsa flood“The unprecedented attack launched by Hamas.
As the IDF prepared to launch a ground campaign into Gaza, Barak detailed what the situation would require in terms of hostages, escalation, governance and popular support for Israel to ensure that its current military campaign would be successful.
The first challenge: the hostage crisis
Israel believes that Hamas has 222 hostages, which Barak sees as a real dilemma, given the large number, firstly, and the fact that at least a quarter of them are citizens of other countries, or have dual citizenship.
In this regard, Barak pointed out the extent of the technical complications of any military operation aimed at liberating the hostages, explaining that such a matter “requires a lot of intelligence information to be very accurate, in light of the current situation that is subject to tight control, and these organizations have learned over the past decades how to organize “The kidnappings, and how the kidnapped people are distributed, to the point that none of them knows where the others are.”
The second challenge: the expansion of the war
Hamas called on Arabs and Muslims to support the Palestinian war effort against Israel. And indeed, mounted Hizb allah The Lebanese government launched cross-border attacks, and other factions of what is known as the “Axis of Resistance” allied with Iran expressed their support for this, as at least one organization calling itself the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” claimed responsibility for daily attacks on American forces in Iraq and Syria.
Tehran also expressed its strong support for Hamas and other Palestinian factions, which also revolted in Jerusalem and the West Bank.
So far, these actors have only participated in limited operations, although the risk of escalation remains, regardless of whether it was intentional or not, especially since the Israeli army is planning a ground incursion into the Gaza Strip to eliminate Hamas.
Barak said, “We have no interest in expanding the conflict to the north… and I do not advise Hezbollah or Lebanon to participate in it, but that is beyond our control.”
He added that he believes that “there is a certain deterrent effect of the presence of American forces here.”
Barak warned that even if the two sides do not want this, a front may open in the north as a result of the friction and skirmishes that occur every day. The matter could easily deteriorate into a full-scale war, he said.
The third challenge: Hamas’ succession
Barak believes that what victory will look like for Israel will remain incomplete, even if the Israeli army succeeds in its efforts to neutralize Hamas, paralyze its military wing, and neutralize other hostile Palestinian factions. Such as: the Islamic Jihad movement, unless there is an acceptable alternative to take power in the Gaza Strip, where approximately 2.2 million live.
Therefore, Barak believes that Israel, which does not plan to return to occupying the Gaza Strip, must think seriously about who it will transfer rule of Gaza to.
He ruled out the return of the Palestinian Authority, as it is already facing a historic crisis of legitimacy, and Hamas has been showing its progress over it in all Palestinian circles.
Barak says that when he was Minister of Defense in 2008, he proposed to the two Palestinian presidents Mahmoud Abbas And the Egyptian – then – Hosni Mubarak Establishing a multinational Arab force to intervene and work to defeat Hamas, within a period of 3 to 6 months, to allow the return of the administration of the Palestinian Authority, but they rejected his offer.
But Barak pointed out the major shift that has occurred in the geopolitics of the region, and that “nothing is impossible anymore,” and that there may even be talks about specific arrangements that take place behind closed doors.
He added, “I hope it will be successful, but certainly some ideas about who we will be able to pass the torch to will be better clarified before the incursion into Gaza, otherwise it will start to appear again, as something unthinkable.”
Fourth challenge: international law
The final obstacle mentioned by Barak is Israel’s commitment to international law, in light of an escalating conflict in which both sides accuse each other of committing war crimes.
Barak commented on this issue by saying, “No matter how effective and sincere our efforts are to follow the law, warn everyone, and make sure they have a real opportunity to leave those parts of Gaza that are targets that must be monitored and hit, a large number of innocent civilians will actually die.”
Barak accused Hamas of using civilians as human shields, which the magazine confirmed was denied by Hamas, and accused the Israeli army of targeting Gaza residents indiscriminately.
However, Barak warned that the backlash over civilian casualties “could very quickly erode the legitimacy of our position,” threatening “the global support we now enjoy.”
The IDF has sought to pre-empt rumours, he said, by regularly engaging directly with journalists, especially regarding high-profile incidents; Example: last week’s controversial attack on the National Arab Baptist Hospital.
But Barak warned that Hamas also has its own mechanisms to spread its own narrative, which, in his opinion, Israel should confront firmly.
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