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© Or Financier.
Investing.com – This last day of the week could be crucial for the pair, whose strong rise in recent days will be tested this Friday. Investors eagerly await US jobs numbers for November, after the currency pair hit a high of 1.0539 last night, its highest since June 29.
Recall that this week’s rise in the euro-dollar is largely explained by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, which confirms the prospect of a slower rate hike path for the next FOMC meeting.
And while the market was already expecting a 50 basis point rate hike (instead of the 75 discussed in the previous four meetings) before Powell’s speech, the {{fr||market conviction}} that the Fed has to “pivot” has continued to strengthen, which has weighed on the dollar, to the benefit of EUR/USD.
Christine Lagarde’s remarks last night did not stop the rise, as the ECB president said that monetary policy is “complicated due to uncertainty” and that central banks must continue to work to bring inflation back to target.
Non-farm payrolls report could be decisive for EUR/USD today
As for today, the fate of the EUR/USD will largely depend on the non-farm payrolls report on . The consensus forecast is that job creation will have slowed down to 200,000 jobs, compared to 261,000 the previous month, and that the unemployment rate will remain at 3.7% and the average hourly wage has increased. to 4.6% in annualized terms, compared to 4.7% in the previous month.
Regarding the possible reaction of the euro-dollar to these figures, the bad news should, in principle, reinforce the expectations of a slowdown in the Fed rate hikes, which would be negative for the dollar and positive for the EUR/ USD.
Conversely, a stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls report could boost the dollar, although it is unlikely to be enough to truly challenge the prospect of a December Fed pivot.
EUR/USD has already recovered more than half of what it lost in 2022
Technically, EUR/USD has broken above the 200-day moving average (1.0366), which the currency pair has struggled to hold since mid-November.
In addition, the euro-dollar has reversed more than 50% (1.0520) of the 2022 downtrend seen between February 10 and September 28.
Lastly, if the uptrend continues, the 1.06-1.0640 zone, which has seen several bullish and bearish pullbacks in April, May and June, will be the next hurdle to watch.
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