Specialized experts expect oil prices to remain in the level of 55 to 60 dollars a barrel for at least two years.
Analysts believe that what is driving oil prices to rise is not what is expected of vaccines, but rather OPEC + measures that put the market in a stable deficit.
The rapid rise in the price of Brent crude, close to the limit of $ 60 a barrel at the beginning of 2021, surpassed all expectations that had assumed that achieving such signs was only possible by the end of the year.
“Everything will depend on the OPEC + decision in March. But even if they agree to increase supplies by 1.5 million barrels per day from April, the market will still suffer from shortages,” Tass news agency quoted Karen Costanian, an analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, as saying. Supply, “adding that in the next three to four months,” no one will have additional capabilities, except for OPEC + countries to increase oil production. “
The persistent supply deficit throughout the year is the baseline for OPEC + forecasts. According to the OPEC + ministerial meeting on February 3, member states expect demand to exceed supply even while facing increased oil production in April and June. The range of the expected deficit ranges from 0.3 million barrels per day to an average of 1.1 million barrels per day for this year.
Vasily Tanurkov, director of the “Accra” company classification group, agrees with the view that the oil market is currently driven by the deficit caused by the actions of OPEC + producers and the fever of speculators. However, he sees this not only as a threat to the rapid recovery of shale oil production in the United States but also to OPEC + itself.
Tanurkov said in this regard: “The current prices appear completely artificial, because at any moment, a review of the OPEC + agreement and an increase in quotas can be expected and this must be cooled.”
Costanian believes that American shale oil companies will need at least 7 to 9 months to achieve a sustainable recovery in production, despite the revival of drilling operations in the United States, indicating that there is no need in the near future to expect a dangerous increase in production from oil shale.
Viktor Kurilov, an analyst at the Norwegian consulting company “Rystad Energy”, points to another factor in the correction, which is the overestimation of the dynamics of the recovery in oil demand in 2021, and according to OPEC’s expectations, demand growth this year may reach 5.6 million barrels per day compared to A decrease of 9 million barrels per day in 2020.
This expert suggested that any correction in current market conditions would be short-lived, adding: “In the baseline scenario, based on the main factors, we expect the price of Brent oil to remain in the range of $ 55-60, at least until the end of 2022.
In addition, the expert Costanian does not rule out that prices will rise to $ 70 a barrel this year, adding at the same time, saying: “But we believe that the average of $ 60 a barrel this year is not an ambiguous thing.” However, Bank of America did not review its annual forecast For oil prices, they remained on average at $ 50 a barrel.