Mexico Energy and Climate Fraud

The Mexican government violates the law and commits fraud against the United Nations in climate and energy matters, especially in the electricity sector. The generation of electricity with fossil fuels is, in the world, the main source of Greenhouse Gas emissions that cause global warming. In Mexico it represents approximately 20% of total national emissions. For this reason, the production and use of clean energy is the basis of policies against climate change and of the commitments of most countries under the Paris Agreement and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). . In the case of our country, the goal established in the Energy Transition and Climate Change Laws, as well as in our contribution to the Paris Agreement (NDC) is to generate 35% of electricity with clean sources by 2024. This precept it is being trampled on by the government of President López, who cynically lies and tries to deceive, as he did openly at the recent COP 27. Some arithmetic is necessary to understand the magnitude of the fraud. By 2024, 357 million Mega-Watts/Hour (357 Tera-Watts/Hour, or TWH) will have to be generated to meet the growing demand for electricity. With current capacity, clean energy production would reach only 97 TWH from current clean sources, 29% of the total. To reach 35%, 125 TWH would be required. Thus, there is a deficit of 28 TWH of clean energy, which would correspond approximately to an additional capacity of 11,000 MW of solar and wind energy by 2024. This, considering an average plant factor of 30%, which means that wind and solar generate 30% of the time. Such additional capacity implies some 11 billion dollars of investment (plus or minus 1 million dollars on average per MW), which are no longer going to materialize.

This government has aborted the energy transition, rammed and scared away investment in clean energy, and even disconnected large private wind power plants. This means that the goal of 11,000 clean MW simply cannot be reached. The government tries to cover up such setbacks by promoting a solar project in Sonora, which by 2024 would only reach (if completed) 420 MW. Such additional capacity is obviously far from the required 11,000 MW. This project is undertaken without bidding, by direct assignment of CFE to a Chinese company, without guarantees, without feasibility or financial viability studies, without an energy purchase-sale contract, and in an area (node) where there are surpluses and saturation of the electrical network and therefore very low prices for electricity, given the existence of large combined cycle plants of the CFE itself and of Iberdrola, and of clean energy from private companies (Acciona). It is just a whim (another one) of President López and an advertising alibi. All while the government arbitrarily disconnects and closes a large private wind power plant – just a few weeks ago – of 105 MW in Guanajuato. On the other hand, the government also publicizes as an alibi, an alleged repowering of hydroelectric plants, which, according to the government itself, will be equivalent to increasing the generation capacity by 280 MW. That is, by adding and subtracting: 420 MW of the solar plant in Sonora + 280 MW of the repowering of hydroelectric plants – the disconnection of the 105 MW Iberdrola plant in Guanajuato, yields a net increase in clean energy capacity of 595 MW. This represents only 5.4% of the 11,000 MW of clean energy required for 2024. With this ridiculous figure, the government intends to circumvent the United Nations, national laws, and public opinion.

Worse, the government presented at COP 27 an update of Mexico’s commitment to the Paris Agreement to reduce emissions by 2030 (NDC or Nationally Determined Contribution or NDC). In it, he promises to reduce emissions by 35% by that year with vaporous and rhetorical measures, including the Sonora project and the repowering of hydroelectric plants. Worse yet, it includes the Mayan Train! and the ecologically pernicious “Sembrando Vida” program, which is a proven cause of deforestation. The foregoing, also, in the context of a conflict and struggle between the Foreign Ministry and SEMARNAT, where the former invades the powers of the latter without having the technical capabilities to do so, and with ostensibly unprepared personnel. It is a shame. The prestige of Mexico is dirtier; our foreign, energy and climate policy is sinking in a swamp of deceit, contradictions and ineptitude; we become environmental and climatic pariahs; and opportunities for competitiveness, investment, employment and growth are canceled for our country.

@g_quadri