Municipal governments, factor for 2023 and 2024

On the way to the 2023 and 2024 electoral processes, experts agreed that the municipal presidencies could be a relevant factor to build cadres that promote candidacies at the state and federal level.

Alejandro Díaz Domínguez, a professor at the Tecnológico de Monterrey, and Dr. Héctor Marcos Díaz Santana, a former electoral prosecutor, agreed that municipal governments, being so close to the governed, can be very significant for national political parties, since the success of these have greater impact and importance for localities.

“If the party has already governed several times (…) and it is a municipality with a considerable proportion of the population, then it is much more likely that it can be assumed that a segment of the population does not view the government of that party with bad eyes” , said Díaz Domínguez.

He added that if the parties govern enough municipalities and, in addition, achieve victories in important municipalities of a certain state, there is a greater possibility that said entity will become a stronghold for the party, and thus be able to aspire to a victory at the state level.

“The issue of how many municipalities each party has won is an important issue: to the extent that a party wins municipalities with a much higher population density, visibility is greater; and if it repeats as the government party, there are reasons to think that the people are not so unhappy (…) then it will add more votes and can aspire to compete for the governorship in the next count”, he commented.

For his part, Marcos Díaz stated that “the parties have a rather worn discourse and a deteriorated public image. They have to be renewed and a very good strategy is to start with local governments”.

He also said that a good way to achieve success with such a strategy is to elect good candidates and strengthen the electoral committees of political parties.

In the 1990s, the PRI had municipal committees in almost all the municipalities, except for Oaxaca, and that worked very well for them to mobilize their electoral strategy,” said Díaz Santana.

Limitations

Although both experts agreed on how important municipal governments are for the construction of cadres, they also stated that leading the largest number of municipalities does not automatically equate to state or national victories.

“Let’s say that we live elections at different levels and each one has its own dynamics,” said Díaz Domínguez.

For his part, Díaz Santana commented that “creating a municipal force, at the national level, is very complicated” since the fact that a person votes for a party at the local level does not mean that they will also do so at the federal level.

main forces

Currently, the PRI is the first political force at the municipal level, since it has 265 mayors throughout the country, according to a count made by El Economista with data from the Ministry of the Interior.

In second place is Morena with 260 mayors and in third place local parties with 221 municipal presidents.

They were followed by the PAN (192); Citizen Movement (135); the Green Ecologist (128); the PRD (69); PT (64) and independent candidates (25).

Territorial presence

Of the 265 municipal presidencies that the PRI has, the central-south zone is where the party concentrates most of its mayors.

The states with the most tricolor municipalities are Yucatán (35); Hidalgo (33); Jalisco (25); Puebla (22) and Veracruz (22).

These 137 municipalities represent 51.6% of the total governed by the tricolor.

For its part, the states where Morena has more mayors are Oaxaca (49); Sound (24); Chiapas (23); Veracruz (19) and Puebla (17).

These five states with the most municipal presidencies governed by Morena add up to 132 municipalities, which represents 50.7% of the total local governments of the ruling party.

As for the PAN, the states with the most mayors are Tamaulipas (28); Guanajuato (22); Jalisco (19); Nuevo León (16), and in Chihuahua (13). This suggests that the area of ​​greatest PAN influence is the west and north of the country.

These 98 PAN local governments add up to 51% of the total number of municipal presidents that the albiazul has in Mexico.

coalitions

If we take into account the figures of mayors achieved in coalition, either with local or national parties, it is observed that the alliance known as Va por México (PAN, PRI and PRD), is the leader of the list, since it adds 229 mayors in the country.

It is followed by the coalition Together We Will Make History (Morena, PT and PVEM), with 128 mayoralties throughout the country, which places it in second place on the list.

Edomex and Coahuila

The following year they will vote for governors of Edomex and Coahuila; in the latter, deputies will also be renewed.

In Edomex, the party that has the most municipal presidencies alone is the PRI, with 21 (16.8% of 125 in total).

They are followed by MC (6) and Verde Ecologista (6), which means 4.8% for each party.

In coalition, the one that concentrates the most mayorships is the Va Por México alliance, with 50 (40%) and is followed by the alliance between Morena, PT and Nueva Alianza with 26 (20.8%).

For its part, in Coahuila the PRI-PRD coalition, with 25 of 38 municipal presidencies, dominates 65.78% of the entity. It is followed by Morena with eight municipalities, which adds up to 21.05% and in third place is the PAN, which has four mayoralties.

politica@eleconomista.mx