(Trends Wide) — The United States is prepared to impose a series of harsh economic sanctions on Russia should it invade Ukraine, starting with high-impact targets that would impose “severe and staggering costs on Russia’s economy,” officials from the Joe Biden administration told Trends Wide. .
The sanctions could have a major impact on Russian consumers, industrial operations and employment, the sources said, and in some cases would put Russia in the same restrictive group of countries for export control purposes as Cuba, Iran, South Korea. North and Syria.
The United States and Russia will meet on Monday for high-profile talks aimed at averting a war, as Russia has continued to build up troops near the borders with Ukraine. But US officials said that if the talks fail and Russia launches a new attack, the US will go straight to high-impact targets, unlike in 2014, when the US initially responded to Russia’s annexation of Crimea. targeting smaller Russian banks and lower-ranking military officials.
The officials said the government will instead take a “start high, stay high” approach in which the US, in coordination with its allies, will target its financial system and sectors seen as critical to the Kremlin.
The change in strategy is both an acknowledgment that sanctions to date have not changed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s behavior and a reflection of Biden’s own convictions. As vice president in 2014, Biden urged President Barack Obama to impose tougher sanctions on Russia and arm Ukraine. But it was eventually cancelled.
As president, Biden has promised “serious consequences” for the Russian economy if Putin orders a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Sources familiar with sanctions options said the administration is preparing a series of significant trade restrictions should Russia strike, including export control measures that could halt Russia’s ability to import smartphones and key aircraft and automobile components.
The restrictions could also hamper Russia’s technological advances, including in the defense and civil aviation sectors, the sources said. Through the Foreign Produced Direct Products rule that the US also imposed against Chinese tech company Huawei, the Biden administration is considering banning exports to Russia of microelectronics (think computer chips) designed with US software or Produced with American equipment.
Some officials in the Joe Biden administration have warned in recent weeks of collateral economic damage from harsh sanctions and the risk of retaliatory Russian cyberattacks if the United States complies with the sanctions. But others in the administration believe the harsh sanctions being considered would have a manageable impact on the US and said the country is taking steps along with its allies to mitigate any unintended spillover effects.
missile deployments
The Joe Biden administration is open to discussing missile deployments in Ukraine and Europe and the possibility of restricting US and NATO exercises during upcoming talks as long as Russia makes “reciprocal” commitments, according to another senior US official. government.
The official noted that Biden told Putin that the United States has no plans to deploy offensive missiles in Ukraine. The United States is also willing to discuss the future of some missile systems in Europe along the lines of the now-defunct Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.
However, the official stressed that the upcoming bilateral talks between Russian and US officials will not result in any immediate concrete agreement and that the officials will need to bring everything discussed to Washington and consult with US allies in the region.
“We go into these meetings with a sense of realism, not optimism,” the official said, noting that the United States will not know until the talks begin whether Russia is prepared to negotiate “seriously and in good faith.”
This official stressed that US/NATO troop numbers or force posture in Europe are definitely not on the table in the upcoming talks; Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said in a tweet Wednesday that force changes are not on the table.
Kirby wrote, “I can state unequivocally that we are NOT considering troop cuts in Europe or posture changes there. We are also not considering changing troop numbers in the Baltics and Poland.”
The official also stressed that comments from the Kremlin during or after the meeting, or what is reported by state media in Russia, may not actually reflect what is achieved in the room.
(Trends Wide) — The United States is prepared to impose a series of harsh economic sanctions on Russia should it invade Ukraine, starting with high-impact targets that would impose “severe and staggering costs on Russia’s economy,” officials from the Joe Biden administration told Trends Wide. .
The sanctions could have a major impact on Russian consumers, industrial operations and employment, the sources said, and in some cases would put Russia in the same restrictive group of countries for export control purposes as Cuba, Iran, South Korea. North and Syria.
The United States and Russia will meet on Monday for high-profile talks aimed at averting a war, as Russia has continued to build up troops near the borders with Ukraine. But US officials said that if the talks fail and Russia launches a new attack, the US will go straight to high-impact targets, unlike in 2014, when the US initially responded to Russia’s annexation of Crimea. targeting smaller Russian banks and lower-ranking military officials.
The officials said the government will instead take a “start high, stay high” approach in which the US, in coordination with its allies, will target its financial system and sectors seen as critical to the Kremlin.
The change in strategy is both an acknowledgment that sanctions to date have not changed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s behavior and a reflection of Biden’s own convictions. As vice president in 2014, Biden urged President Barack Obama to impose tougher sanctions on Russia and arm Ukraine. But it was eventually cancelled.
As president, Biden has promised “serious consequences” for the Russian economy if Putin orders a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Sources familiar with sanctions options said the administration is preparing a series of significant trade restrictions should Russia strike, including export control measures that could halt Russia’s ability to import smartphones and key aircraft and automobile components.
The restrictions could also hamper Russia’s technological advances, including in the defense and civil aviation sectors, the sources said. Through the Foreign Produced Direct Products rule that the US also imposed against Chinese tech company Huawei, the Biden administration is considering banning exports to Russia of microelectronics (think computer chips) designed with US software or Produced with American equipment.
Some officials in the Joe Biden administration have warned in recent weeks of collateral economic damage from harsh sanctions and the risk of retaliatory Russian cyberattacks if the United States complies with the sanctions. But others in the administration believe the harsh sanctions being considered would have a manageable impact on the US and said the country is taking steps along with its allies to mitigate any unintended spillover effects.
missile deployments
The Joe Biden administration is open to discussing missile deployments in Ukraine and Europe and the possibility of restricting US and NATO exercises during upcoming talks as long as Russia makes “reciprocal” commitments, according to another senior US official. government.
The official noted that Biden told Putin that the United States has no plans to deploy offensive missiles in Ukraine. The United States is also willing to discuss the future of some missile systems in Europe along the lines of the now-defunct Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.
However, the official stressed that the upcoming bilateral talks between Russian and US officials will not result in any immediate concrete agreement and that the officials will need to bring everything discussed to Washington and consult with US allies in the region.
“We go into these meetings with a sense of realism, not optimism,” the official said, noting that the United States will not know until the talks begin whether Russia is prepared to negotiate “seriously and in good faith.”
This official stressed that US/NATO troop numbers or force posture in Europe are definitely not on the table in the upcoming talks; Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said in a tweet Wednesday that force changes are not on the table.
Kirby wrote, “I can state unequivocally that we are NOT considering troop cuts in Europe or posture changes there. We are also not considering changing troop numbers in the Baltics and Poland.”
The official also stressed that comments from the Kremlin during or after the meeting, or what is reported by state media in Russia, may not actually reflect what is achieved in the room.
