Video duration 23 minutes 04 seconds
Former US National Security Council member Charles Caption expected that the security guarantees required of Russia related to the crisis with Ukraine would focus on issues related to the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
And he considered – in his speech to the “Beyond the News” program (26/1/2022) – that the administration of US President Joe Biden will not explicitly declare the closure of the doors of NATO, but rather that there will be some efforts to reach an agreement stating that Ukraine’s membership in NATO is not considered in The current period and not soon.
He added that the guarantees may also include some pledges to limit the spread of conventional weapons and military maneuvers, and perhaps reintroduce the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty to expand the discussion beyond just the Ukrainian issue.
On the Russian side, Andrei Kortunov, head of the Russian Council on International Relations, said that Russian President Vladimir Putin has the option to take an all-or-nothing approach, or a partial approach, from which some pledges can be drawn. Medium range of the new generation, as well as the distance between NATO and Russia.
He also considered that Russia has a series of options, including an additional strengthening of its presence in Central Europe, ruling out that Russia will invade Ukraine militarily, but there are still several dangers resulting from any misinterpretation or provocation that may lead to the outbreak of a military confrontation.
Europe and Germany
As for the European and German position in particular, Matthias Brugmann, editor-in-chief of the German newspaper “Handelsblatt”, said that the European and American response would be to impose sanctions if Russia invaded Ukraine, noting that Germany would pay dearly for the sanctions, because the economy The German is closely associated with Russia.
He added that Germany relies heavily on Russian oil and gas, explaining that if Russia cuts gas supplies to Europe, Germany will be affected, and therefore it is understandable the hesitation in the German position, but it will often take the same position as its Western allies.
It is noteworthy that the Russian “Itar-Tass” agency said that the Russian Foreign Ministry had received a written response from Washington regarding the security guarantees required from Russia related to the crisis with Ukraine. This development coincides with the quadripartite meeting hosted by the French capital to discuss the implementation of the terms of the Minsk Agreement, amid US-Western warnings to Russia against any action targeting Kiev and Moscow’s assertion that it will not remain a spectator of the West’s behavior towards it.