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(Trends Wide) — The elections this Tuesday in different states and cities of the United States will serve to test the presidency of Joe Biden and the political environment in the country with a view to the midterm legislative elections, which will take place next year.
The most important electoral contest is that of Virginia, where the Republican Glenn Youngkin tries to stop the attempt of the former Democratic governor Terry McAuliffe to regain his old position. The race will have repercussions across the country as both parties try to navigate the difficult landscape after President Donald Trump and with control of Congress at stake.
Meanwhile, in major cities across the country, Democrats will make party leadership decisions in intraparty mayoral races pitting progressives against establishment figures.
And in Minneapolis, the progressive “Defund the Police” movement faces a great test.
Here’s what to see this Tuesday:
Virginia’s race puts the national atmosphere to the test
The Virginia gubernatorial race will be the most closely watched contest of the night, as both Republicans and Democrats see this tight race as a key indicator of national sentiment heading into the 2022 congressional elections and beyond.
McAuliffe, who was governor from 2014 to 2018, is seeking a historic second term in a state that prohibits governors from serving successively. McAuliffe has relied heavily on the state’s left lean during his campaign, hoping to energize the very voters who helped Biden win Virginia by 10 percentage points in 2020. And he has done so by spending millions on TV ads. linking his opponent, businessman-turned-politician Youngkin, to former President Donald Trump, a political figure who remains deeply unpopular in some of Virginia’s most vote-rich areas.
Youngkin has tried to walk a fine line with Trump: Although he has kept him at arm’s length at the close of the campaign, he has focused on many of the same issues that animated his base in 2020. Youngkin’s campaign has tried to locate the race, in hopes of animating a series of grievances directed at the Democratic leadership in Richmond and Washington, from what is taught in Virginia schools to how tough the community must be in fighting the coronavirus pandemic.
Why Virginia Matters
Every four years, the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections – one year after the presidential elections and one year before the midterms – are seen as a test of the national political environment.
New Jersey is favorable enough terrain for Democrats that it is not considered competitive this year. But Virginia could be the biggest contest of 2021.
Normally, but not always, the pendulum swings against the state governor. In fact, the only recent gubernatorial race to break that trend was in 2013, when McAuliffe claimed victory the year after then-President Barack Obama was reelected.
Would a Youngkin victory simply reflect the typical ebb and flow of American politics, or would it indicate that narrow Democratic majorities in Congress are in grave jeopardy in next year’s midterm elections? It is impossible to know, and the electoral landscape could be very different in the fall of 2022.
But a good showing from Youngkin would send a clear message that, with Trump’s removal from the presidency, the dynamics have changed, and Democrats cannot rely on their Trump-era gains in the suburbs – which returned to Virginia every bluer – are permanent in a post-Trump environment.
Democrats on track for success in New Jersey
Gov. Phil Murphy appears to have a comfortable lead in his bid to become the first Democratic governor of New Jersey to be re-elected since 1977.
Barring a notable turnaround – Republican hopeful Jack Ciattarelli, businessman and former state legislator, trailing Murphy by about 10 percentage points in recent polls – the streak will be snapped and Democrats will have some proof that an executive who He has defended the use of mask and the vaccination mandates will be rewarded for it by the voters.
Murphy’s victory will also highlight the difficulty even moderate Republicans have in distancing themselves from Trump, especially in the blue states, and could represent a counterpoint to Virginia, where the GOP gubernatorial candidate could be on track to surpass the former. President. Trump has stayed away from Ciattarelli and Ciattarelli has kept his distance from Trump.
But Murphy has criticized Ciattarelli, whose main message is about taxes, which voters have called the state’s most pressing problem, for appearing at a “Stop the Steal” rally. Former President Donald Trump alleging fraud in the 2020 presidential election). Last year Ciattarelli said he was not fully aware of the theme of the event.
A test of the requests to “Defund the Police”
Minneapolis voters, nearly 18 months after George Floyd’s assassination, will have the most important opportunity to reform the city’s police department by voting in a local referendum that is being watched nationally as a test of the “Defund the Laws” movement. Policeman”.
If the measure is approved, the city police would be completely remodeled: a Department of Public Safety would be created and, if the city continued to employ officers, they would be organized by that department. The city would also be forced to employ a minimum number of agents and control of the department would be divided between the city council and the mayor.
Nationally, the referendum is seen as proof of the “Defunding the Police” movement, a slogan that gained traction after Floyd’s murder. Republicans have used this move to attack Democrats, calling them insensitive and weak in the face of crime. Some Democrats have argued that policing needs to be rethought after incidents like the Floyd murder.
At the local level, people on both sides of the issue have tried to downplay the national implications, with opponents arguing that approval would not lead to the end of police in the city and rejection at the polls would not mean a blanket statement. on the underfunding of the police.
A new mayor rises in New York
Eric Adams narrowly prevailed to become the Democratic candidate for mayor of New York. Tuesday’s race will be less dramatic: the president of the borough of Brooklyn has all the ballots to be elected the next mayor of the Big Apple.
His rise, however, goes beyond the city, as Adams and his campaign have been viewed by leading Democrats as an example of how the party should move forward, both in New York and across the country.
Adams, a former police captain, has tried to present himself as a working-class candidate. And on primary day, working-class parts of the city – especially outside of Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn – gave him their support.
Although he has been dismissive, and has sometimes clashed with activists from the party’s left, Adams has also adopted – on issues such as public safety, the centerpiece of his campaign – some forward thinking ideas about prevention and early intervention.
Other mayoral races to watch out for
Beyond New York, these are other mayoral races to follow this Tuesday:
Boston: Boston sets out to make history by first casting a woman of color in a city long dominated by white men. Polls show Boston Councilor Michelle Wu, a champion of progressive policies, has a dominant advantage over her more moderate rival Annissa Essaibi George, who is also Boston Councilor General.
Buffalo: Democratic Socialist India Walton defeated Mayor Byron Brown in the Buffalo Democratic primary in June, scoring a surprising victory for the progressive left, while also charting the path to become the first socialist mayor of a major American city in more than 60 years. But to win mayor, he will have to defeat Brown again. The current mayor is preparing an aggressive written campaign.
Atlanta: Fourteen candidates are running to replace Democratic Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, who is not running for reelection. The fight comes amid alarm over the rise in violent crime, as well as controversy over residents of the wealthy Buckhead community trying to separate from the capital and create their own city. Polls suggest that a large swath of the electorate is still undecided, but leading candidates – including former Mayor Kasim Reed, City Council President Felicia Moore, and Councilmember Andre Dickens – have put Atlanta’s crime rate at the top. plan of your campaigns. If no candidate gets at least 50% plus one, Atlanta will hold a runoff on November 30 to decide the winner.
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