Today, developments and the acceleration of changes in the region and the world seem more appropriate to start a new phase in relations between Turkey and Armenia, and to turn a heavy page of the legacy of the past, after nearly 3 decades of closing the borders between them, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu revealed a few days ago that the first meeting Between Turkey and Armenia, after the appointment of special representatives, a meeting will be held in Moscow, and this was preceded by his announcement that Ankara had taken steps to build confidence within the framework of Turkish-Armenian relations, with the aim of stabilizing the region.
It is clear that the chances of reaching an agreement between Ankara and Yerevan are greater than ever, especially after the end of the Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani lands, which are the reasons for which Turkey severed its relations with Armenia in 1993, and closed its land borders with it, in support of Azerbaijan, which is no longer objecting today. On the signs of rapprochement as it was in 2009, it announced that it supports the normalization of sisterly Turkey’s relations with Armenia, and its Foreign Minister Jehon Peramov stated that Turkey’s normalization with Armenia will serve the common interests between Ankara and Baku as well.
The complex relations between the two neighboring countries, Turkey and Armenia, are caused by, among other things, Ankara’s demand for Yerevan to settle the conflict with Azerbaijan, to conduct research on the events of 1915 in the archives of other countries, as well as Turkish and Armenian archives, and to establish a joint historical committee comprising Turkish and Armenian historians, and international experts, and to solve the issue Through the prism of “fair memory”.
The calculations in the three capitals (Ankara, Baku, Yerevan) changed after last year’s war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. That war, which lasted for 44 days and ended with the defeat of Armenia, changed the rules of the game. Under the ceasefire agreement, Armenia handed over the occupied territories to Azerbaijan, which means a justified absence. Ankara’s original severance of relations, and surely if Turkey and Armenia normalize their relations, there will be more chances for peace in Nagorno-Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia as well.
Today, Moscow is able to revive the diplomatic agreements negotiated between Turkey and Armenia in 2009, especially the opening of the land borders between the two neighboring countries. With the implementation of many provisions of the agreement sponsored by Russia between Baku and Yerevan, and its control of the strategic Nakhchivan and Lachin roads, one The main obstacles to the implementation of the protocols previously signed between Ankara and Yerevan have been removed.
Russian officials spoke positively about the new rhetoric between Armenia and Turkey, and expressed their willingness to help. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on September 3, “Now, after the end of the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, there is reason to untie the political process and restore relations.” In the areas of economy and transportation, it would be logical for Armenia and Turkey to resume their efforts to normalize relations.”
The impact of opening land borders in helping to improve the economic situation in Armenia in particular, and its access to the outside world, cannot be ignored, as it will also benefit the Turkish provinces bordering Armenia where locals have long desired closer ties to boost their local economies.
Armenia’s need for Turkey seems greater, as it is still suffering from the consequences of the recent war, and economic crises deepened by its long dependence on the Russian economy, while Turkey seems more interested in normalization with Armenia under the “3 + 3” plan that I previously proposed, which is a regional forum consisting of From the countries of the South Caucasus and its neighbors: Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, as well as Iran, Russia and Turkey.
The Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan believes that the abolition of the movement ban will completely change the logic of development in the region, and said in an interview with the Russian “TASS” agency, commenting on the statement of the tripartite agreement, “This is a very important point, and I think that in the near future we must focus on this point.” Because when we talk about economic stability, not only in Armenia but in the whole region, we must take concrete steps.”
While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said last September that his country was ready to start a dialogue with Armenia, but Yerevan should allow smooth transit between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, and the Turkish president was referring to the opening of a corridor linking Azerbaijan and its enclave Nakhchivan in southwestern Armenia. On the borders with Turkey and Iran, which Yerevan considered a condition for the resumption of relations.
More than two years ago, former US National Security Adviser John Bolton, during his visit to Armenia, publicly demanded Yerevan to abandon “historical clichés” in its international relations, and did not hide that the talk was about traditional friendship with Moscow, as he said he expected Nikol Pashinyan, the Chargé d’Affairs The Armenian Prime Minister at the time, “after the elections take proactive steps on the settlement of Karabakh.”
Many factors have prevented Washington and Western capitals from achieving their goals and desires in the region. Washington’s inclination toward Armenia comes largely through a desire to pressure Turkey, and it is not so much about Armenian-Turkish relations as it is about US-Turkish differences in the Middle East, which were exacerbated after 2013 during the Syrian wars, by supporting the administration of former President Barack Obama The Syrian extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (which is listed on the terrorist lists of NATO and several regional countries), and its threat to the interests of a member state of NATO, as well as the extradition file of Fethullah Gulen residing in the United States, and at the same time Armenia’s cooperation with Russia and Iran is seen It is a serious challenge to the position of the United States in the Caucasus.
It is also difficult to look at the French diplomatic move on the Caucasus conflict through the influence of the Armenian lobby in France only, as we note Macron opposing Ankara in the Mediterranean, as well as the French position on the Turkish-Greek disputes, the complex Cyprus issue, the confrontation in Libya, and Paris’s support for separatist terrorism in the republic The Syrian Arab Republic, which threatens the territorial integrity of the Arab Republic, and threatens Turkey and later other countries including Russia in the Southern and Northern Caucasus.
The complex relations between the two neighboring countries, Turkey and Armenia, are caused by, among other things, Ankara’s demand for Yerevan to settle the conflict with Azerbaijan, to conduct research on the events of 1915 in the archives of other countries, as well as Turkish and Armenian archives, and to establish a joint historical committee comprising Turkish and Armenian historians, and international experts, and to solve the issue Through the perspective of “just memory”, which in short means abandoning the one-sided view of history, and each side’s understanding of what the other lived through, and mutual respect for the memory of the past on each side.
Ankara surprised Baku in late 2009 by announcing the beginning of normalization with Armenia, the archenemy of Azerbaijan and Turkey. From the Armenian side.
It remains to say that Turkish-Armenian relations outside the borders are more complex, in light of the rejection and opposition of most of the “lobbies” of the Armenian diaspora to normalization, and this process must be accompanied by a tangible treatment of the phenomenon of congestion, or addressing the root causes of tensions that would lead to an increase in a degree of confidence between countries.