Throughout 2022 I heard several times phrases like the one that gives the title to this installment.
Regularly the phrases went hand in hand with a plan that was postponed for a better time, or decisions that would necessarily have to wait. When I heard those statements, I couldn’t help but think that it was a reflection of a flight into the future, in order to escape from the complex reality that we face every day.
And boy, was it a difficult year – while concerns around Covid-19 subsided, and we had a near return to normality, other issues emerged that captured attention: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the sharp rise in inflation , the tensions between China and the United States (especially since Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan), while in Egypt, in the context of the 27th Conference of the Parties (COP) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, a desperate call was made to reinforce the commitments regarding the reduction of emissions.
As if the above were not enough, we saw in real time how the electoral results in countries as diverse as France, the United States, Italy, Brazil or Colombia will have important consequences in the world order.
The deterioration of the forecasts for the world economy and trade was also a constant news throughout 2022. The optimism with which the year began was quickly replaced by concern, especially when an imminent global recession was predicted in 2023.
It does not seem to me that the phenomena described are temporary crises or events that can be “fixed” by correcting some elements here or there. On the contrary, I believe that we are facing a profound systemic change that touches many dimensions of our lives at the same time and that makes us question the concepts that we have traditionally used to understand the economy, the environment, geopolitics, democracy, social inclusion agenda, etc. Therefore, running away, postponing decisions or waiting for a “good” moment for things to happen sounds unhelpful.
But these facts and these questions, together with the uncertainty and anxiety that it can generate in us – and which are undoubtedly very real – coexisted during 2022 with other events that give us hope for what is to come. The Mexican economy, although it is not yet in the place that we all would like, showed great resilience, and throughout the year the forecasts improved, to the point that GDP growth of around 2.5% is expected in 2022. This result is largely due to our relationship with foreign markets and the preferential relationship we have with the United States through the T-MEC. Foreign trade (that is, the sum of imports and exports) will exceed one trillion dollars in 2022, while direct foreign investment will reach approximately 40 billion dollars.
What can we expect by 2023? It would be naive to think that the problems that plague the world will be solved overnight, especially when the factors that have generated these problems are still present. However, I believe that there are elements to be optimistic: the situation in Ukraine has taken a much better course than what was predicted at the beginning of the conflict, inflation has begun to subside, and although it will take time, the governments of the most important countries The world have begun to back up their narrative in favor of the environment with concrete actions, such as the agreement to establish a fund to support the energy transition in less developed countries. Let’s not think that strategic planning exercises or drawing future scenarios is idle. It is true that the future, even the most immediate, may be unknown, but let us not forget that, in any scenario, human beings will continue to do what we consider best for our families, our country, and our planet. There lies our great strength, and also our great hope.
Receive my best wishes for this end of the year, and the beginning of 2023!
*The author is an academic from the Universidad Panamericana; Prior to that, he had a twenty-year career in the federal government dealing with international trade negotiations.
Twitter: @JCBakerMX
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