(Trends Wide) — The new cases of covid-19 have been declining during the last week, and although that development is hopeful, an expert warns that it is not time to lower our guard with the delta variant still spreading and winter on the way.
“We are not out of the woods and I fully expect case counts to rise again across the country over the next several weeks and months,” said Dr. Megan Ranney, associate dean of the School of Public Health at Brown University.
Over the past week, the seven-day average of new cases has dropped by more than 20,000 cases to about 130,000 cases a day, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Much of the decline has to do with states that saw a large number of cases of early delta variants, such as Florida and Mississippi, coming down from their peaks, Ranney told Trends Wide on Wednesday.
And for the second week in a row, a joint forecast from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) predicts that new daily COVID-19 hospitalizations will likely decline over the next four weeks.
Last week’s forecast, released Sept. 15, predicted hospitalizations would decline for the first time since the June 23 forecast. This week’s forecast predicts there will be 4,600 to 11,800 new hospital admissions for COVID-19 likely reported by October 18.
But the South could still see more cases, and the Northeast could also see a surge, Ranney added. And historically, more cases have been followed by an increase in hospitalizations, a worrying possibility for many hospitals that are already overwhelmed.
West Virginia has reached a record 1,000 hospitalizations for COVID-19 for the first time, according to a press release from Governor Jim Justice. And nationwide, nearly 80% of ICU beds are in use, more than a quarter of those occupied by COVID-19 patients, according to the Department of Health and Human Services.
Despite calls from health professionals for people to get vaccinated to keep hospitalization and death rates low, the current rate of vaccination has reached the slowest point in two months, according to CDC data.
“For the vast majority of us, if you get your shots, you’re not going to die,” Ranney said. “As this disease spreads, it spreads throughout the community. It is more likely to catch the most vulnerable people.”
Booster Emergency Use Authorization May Be Extended To Younger Populations, Says Former FDA Commissioner
On Wednesday, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted an emergency use authorization (EUA) for the booster dose of Pfizer’s covid-19 vaccine for people 65 years of age and older, people at high risk of serious illness and people whose jobs put them at risk of infection.
“Today’s action demonstrates that currently available science and data continue to guide FDA decision-making for covid-19 vaccines during this pandemic,” said Acting FDA Commissioner Dr. Janet Woodcock in a release.
A former FDA commissioner believes the age group could expand soon.
“I suspect that what is going to happen is that we will continue to collect data on this cohort, 65 and older and other people who are eligible, and eventually the agency may use the authorization for younger age cohorts, based on what they know from of the data set here in the United States, “Dr. Scott Gottlieb told Trends Wide.
Gottlieb said CDC vaccine advisers will meet again Thursday to interpret the FDA clearance, which could apply to a “broad” portion of the population.
“It could include many people who are at high risk for a bad covid outcome, because they are more likely to come into contact with the disease, who are working in occupations where they are at risk of contracting the disease as well.”
Some schools take preventive measures, others reduce them
Another consideration in managing the virus is the return of children to classes in person, which schools are handling differently.
Some schools have expanded covid-19 preventive measures as more students have become infected across the country.
In South Carolina, the Charleston County School District began fully enforcing its mask-wearing mandate on Wednesday, and as a result, several students were sent home for non-compliance, according to CCSD Director of Communications Andy Pruitt. .
Students who do not return to school adhering to the new policy will attend classes virtually until at least October 15, although they can return to the classroom with a mask, he said.
Elsewhere, precautions are being relaxed.
In Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis announced a revised rule for the school year that parents can send asymptomatic children exposed to COVID-19 back to school.
He said the policy, which was opposed by some educators, recognizes that quarantining healthy students is “incredibly damaging” to the educational advancement of students and damaging to families.
Trends Wide’s Naomi Thomas, Jenn Selva, Lauren Mascarenhas, Maggie Fox, Liam Reilly, Rebekah Riess and Leyla Santiago contributed to this report.