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The triumphs of the left in the presidential elections in Peru, but especially in Chile, represent a turnaround in Latin America, which would have its next seasons in Colombia, Brazil and Mexico in two years.
Before, Andrés Manuel López Obrador wants to ratify his mandate at the polls. And then, undertake the last stretch of his six-year term with the necessary strength to cement the Fourth Transformation, hand over power and retire to La Chingada, his farm in Palenque, Chiapas.
His reading of opinion polls is irrefutable: two thirds of citizens approve of his term as president of Mexico and only one in four would be against him. The presidential agreement, however, does not reflect uncritical support for his cabinet.
Quite the opposite. The most recent polls reflect a strong growth in social unrest coupled with a marked drop in their expectations for the future. And as Covid-19 transitions to become an endemic disease, concerns about the economic recession are growing among Mexicans. Few believe that their personal situation will improve in 2022, while most expect the country’s economy to worsen.
Social humor —as an in-depth reading of social media reflects— is charged with negativity. Disenchantment with AMLO has doubled in the last year and a half – according to the most recent report from the Dinamic Co agency – and recent events (such as the collapse of the statue erected in Atlacomulco to honor the Tabasco president) are ominous signs of a increasing decomposition.
But trusting in his data, in his intermittent moral pugilism and in Morena’s mobilization apparatus, the Tabasco politician promised to leave the National Palace if the consultation on the revocation – its realization is still uncertain; even more, the date for its celebration — will not be favorable to you. The requirement established in the Constitution for the percentage of participation to make an adverse result binding would not be a limitation. AMLO’s last participation in a democratic exercise could not – in any case – be an omen for 2024 either.
The victory in Chile of a young representative of the democratic left cannot be a warning for the Mexican electoral competition either. Determined to forge a new history for Mexico, AMLO broke the old party system and formed a government with former colleagues. Only Irma Eréndira Sandoval and Luisa María Alcalde could fulfill the promise of a generational change in 2024, but it will not be like that.
AMLO belongs to the generation that in 1994 agreed to alternate power. Three decades later, a generational change would not occur, so it is now outlined.
The anointing of Gabriel Boric in Chile will be a forced comparison, a distant reference. The succession of 2024 would be resolved between politicians of the old guard and AMLO would be the factotum.
The bitterness and polarization have made partisan politics infertile ground. The absence of a widely accepted opposition figure led Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas to register in the Grupo Reforma poll of presidential candidates, more because of the memory of the name of the ill-fated PRI presidential candidate than due to any merit of his heir.
A light at the end of the tunnel? Claudia Sheinbaum and Marcelo Ebrard – it was already clear – will not be the only protagonists of the race in 2024. Morena – it is also evident – could suffer a fracture if the definition of the presidential candidate is a simulation.
Could a broad anti-AMLO front work? No, in the short term, but the Colosio phenomenon opens up a new scenario.
Side effects
SILENT. Not only is monrealism experiencing a critical period, after the imprisonment of José Manuel Del Río Virgen in Veracruz. The first circle of ebrarismo suffered a stealthy shake two weeks ago, which had its most significant expression in the separation of José Antonio Domínguez Carballo from the Administration and Finance Unit of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, although the cleanup was extensive and he was at the controls. media from different areas of the Foreign Ministry – under suspicion of rigged bids and collection of moches – before the internal control body sanctioned those involved. Under the magnifying glass would also be the administrative director, Evelyn López and the director of Acquisitions and Contracts, Isis Alcíbar Flores.
OMISSIONS. The good news is the arrival of two women to the command posts of Inegi and Banco de México. The bad news is that the Governing Board of the autonomous body responsible for national statistics was incomplete, without the federal Executive even proposing a shortlist to fill the vacancy left by Julio Santaella. The worst? That the IFT and Cofece are also incomplete and with interim presidents.
Journalist
Vital signs
Journalist and columnist for El Economista, author of Doña Perpetua: el poder y la opulencia de Elba Esther Gordillo. Elba Esther Gordillo against the SEP.
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