International oil prices reacted this Tuesday with a drop of more than 3% to the higher-than-expected inflation data in the United States, but recovered slightly and closed the session with a loss of less than 1 percent.
This Tuesday, it was announced that annual inflation in the United States rose to 8.3% in August, a slight drop compared to last month, but higher than the level of 8.1% that the market had discounted.
US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed down $0.47, or 0.54%, at $87.31 a barrel. In the session, it reached a minimum of 85.08 dollars.
For its part, the North Sea Brent lost 0.83 dollars or 0.88%, to end the day at 93.17 dollars per barrel. Its session low was $91.08.
The Mexican export mix ended the day trading at 83.46 dollars per barrel, down 25 cents or 0.30% from the previous day.
Ana Azuara, Raw Materials analyst at Banco Base, commented that the price of hydrocarbons was pressured by the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) of the United States will increase interest rates at a higher rate due to inflation data that is worse than expected. expected, coupled with the dollar strengthening after the news.
“The strengthening of the dollar and the expectation of higher rates reduce the demand for commodities by making them less accessible to investors who have another currency and increase the opportunity costs of maintaining investments in raw materials that do not earn interest,” said Azuara.
He added that “losses were limited, as there are still supply concerns, which are expected to increase as winter approaches,” when demand usually picks up.
Marcos Daniel Arias, economic analyst at Monex Casa de Bolsa, assured that shortly after the inflation data was released, there was an “overreaction” in the price of various raw materials, a situation that was later “corrected”.
“This Tuesday’s session was very volatile for raw materials,” said Arias, who stated that there was no additional news on oil to explain the recovery achieved towards the end of the day.
In a report released today, OPEC acknowledged that in August it produced only 25.2 million barrels of oil per day, which represented 1.4 million barrels of crude oil less than what was proposed by the oil cartel.
League 14 weeks down
Last week, the price of gasoline in the United States fell 14 weeks from its maximum price in early June, a period in which it has plummeted 26.69%, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA, for its acronym in English) of the US.
During the week ending September 12, the average in the country’s gas stations was 3,551 dollars per gallon, from the historical maximum of 4,844 dollars that it averaged in the week ending June 13, according to the EIA.
The reduction in fuel prices has come as crude oil prices have also been falling since the maximum they reached at the beginning of the sixth month of the year.
Since June 8, the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has fallen 28.50%, while North Sea Brent has sunk 24.61%, pressured downward by the expectation of lower demand amid a slowdown in the economy.
They will go down more
Analysts assured that there is still room for the prices of gasoline in the United States and oil to fall even more.
Ana Azuara said that the price of gasoline could plummet to 3.10-3.20 dollars per gallon, while the Monex analyst commented that it could remain stable in the coming weeks, with room to drop to 3.40 dollars per gallon.
“It will depend a lot on growth expectations, which is what has caused prices to fall. The deterioration of global economic activity and the coronavirus lockdowns in China have limited demand and if they continue, they may limit it even more,” said the raw materials analyst at Banco Base.
Arias said that if adverse economic data continue to be released and high inflation persists, crude could drop to levels of 75 dollars per barrel in mid-October. “From there it would pick up again to levels between $90 and $100 towards the end of the year.”
sebastian.diaz@eleconomista.mx
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