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The tension between Washington and Moscow has entered dead time, after the alarm about an imminent military invasion of Ukraine was voiced, among others, by US President Joe Biden. The White House’s denial of Vladimir Putin’s claims is followed by an undetermined deadline for the corresponding Russian response, so that the channels of dialogue remain open without Moscow’s initial ultimatum specifying dates for compliance. This has happened with the telephone conversation yesterday between Macron and Putin and the resurrection of the quadripartite negotiation format, called Normandy, which brings together the governments of Kiev, Moscow, Paris and Berlin to negotiate the situation in Donbas, where the armed clashes between the Ukrainian army and the Russian-backed separatist troops have been going on for eight years now.
Although Putin seeks to prove otherwise, this is not an inevitable war like a weather phenomenon. It is decided in the offices of the Kremlin and there is therefore no reason to lower our guard, especially given the continuation of the escalation and the usual disdainful reaction of Russian diplomacy to Washington’s proposal. The danger has not disappeared, but at least it is deferred by the absence of peremptory deadlines.
Biden is not following the example of Obama, who left the political negotiation in the hands of France and Germany in the face of the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbas. Although the Normandy format has resurfaced, this time Washington is not going to leave the stage and the White House has realized that its direct confrontation with the Chinese strategic rival also goes through Ukraine: if Putin were to win his game in Europe, China would it would feel free to act on Taiwan and the United States would have started to lose it in Asia. It would also encourage North Korea and Iran in their weapons projects.
The harmonious conduct of such a complex geometry between NATO, the EU and the main European countries, in which the leading role of the United States must be balanced with other leading roles and the reservations of the Europeans, in open contrast to the univocality of the autocratic power of Putin. The tasks to be tackled among so many and so varied allies are varied and complex: avoiding cacophonies, reinforcing the borders of the Atlantic Alliance with Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, providing aid and solidarity to Kiev and preparing a convincing package of economic sanctions.
It is a time for diplomacy, yes, but also for European unity and solidarity in which each member contributes according to their abilities. That is the meaning of the participation of Spanish ships and aircraft in the defensive and dissuasive deployment in the face of a threat of war of aggression against Ukraine.
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